建信期货工业硅日报-20250819

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated. Si2511 closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, down 0.28%, with a trading volume of 511,250 lots and an open interest of 297,619 lots, a net increase of 21,347 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices were stable. Inner Mongolia 553 was priced at 8,800 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 at 8,850 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 at 9,700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 at 9,500 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 at 9,950 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Weekly supply and demand both increased. Weekly output reached 84,700 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, polysilicon production in August is expected to increase to 125,000 tons, and demand from organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and exports is expected to remain stable, with monthly demand estimated at 360,000 tons. Supply and demand are in a loose balance (excluding 97 silicon and recycled silicon), and there is no inventory reduction drive in the industry [4] - Anti - involution policies set a bottom tone, but there are no implemented policy drivers in the industrial silicon industry. Futures prices are weaker than those of polysilicon and lithium carbonate. In the short term, prices will oscillate within the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton with decreasing trading volume [4] Group 3: Market News - On August 18, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,710 lots, a net increase of 111 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data on August 7, China imported 3.5609 million tons of coal and lignite in July, an increase of 257,200 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 7.8%. The cumulative import from January to July was 25.7305 million tons [5]