广发期货《农产品》日报-20250819

1. Sugar Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The report anticipates that Zhengzhou sugar will remain volatile with reduced downward momentum. The decline in Brazilian sugarcane yield per unit and concerns about the high sugar - making ratio have raised the risk of a downward revision in Brazilian sugar production, leading to a rebound in raw sugar after a period of low - level consolidation. Although India and Thailand are expected to have bumper harvests, there may be differences from expectations. In the short term, it is difficult for raw sugar to experience a significant decline. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 17 cents per pound. In July, sugar imports are expected to be significantly higher than the same period last year. However, as the futures price stops falling and rebounds, the inventory reduction progress in Guangxi has further improved, which generally supports the price. Currently, the domestic news is relatively calm [1]. Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.14% to 5672 yuan/ton, while sugar 2509 decreased by 0.07% to 5736 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 1.40% to 16.24 cents per pound. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 15.79% to - 64 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 2.34% to 322,832, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.01% to 16,931 [1]. - Spot Market: The price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5980 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it decreased by 0.09% to 5855 yuan/ton. The Nanning basis increased by 1.67% to 244 yuan/ton, and the Kunming basis decreased by 0.83% to 119 yuan/ton. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) increased by 0.20% to 4561 yuan/ton, and (out - of - quota) increased by 0.17% to 5796 yuan/ton [1]. - Industry Situation: Nationally, the cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 15.76% to 955.00 million tons. In Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production increased by 4.59% to 646.50 million tons, and the monthly sales decreased by 37.99% to 35.55 million tons. The national cumulative sugar sales rate increased by 3.36% to 85.60%, and in Guangxi, it increased by 3.04% to 85.01%. The national industrial inventory decreased by 10.44% to 96.89 million tons, and in Guangxi, it decreased by 12.23% to 181.97 million tons. Sugar imports increased by 160.00% to 13.00 million tons [1]. 2. Cotton Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View After the cotton price stabilized at the beginning of August, the downstream of the cotton industry has gradually improved marginally. The inventory of cotton yarn products has slightly decreased, and the spinning mills' operating rate has remained stable. The market is concerned about whether the downstream will continue to improve marginally during the traditional peak season, which provides support for the cotton price at low levels. Meanwhile, before the new cotton is launched, the spot basis remains firm, and there is a shortage of low - basis spot cotton in Xinjiang warehouses, which also strongly supports the cotton price. However, as the new cotton is about to be launched, the expected increase in the new - season cotton production still exerts some pressure on the long - term supply. In summary, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is launched [2]. Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of cotton 2509 decreased by 0.04% to 13,830 yuan/ton, and cotton 2601 increased by 0.04% to 14,125 yuan/ton. The ICE US cotton主力 increased by 0.53% to 67.84 cents per pound. The 9 - 1 spread of cotton decreased by 3.51% to - 295 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 1.77% to 486,067, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% to 7762 [2]. - Spot Market: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B increased by 0.07% to 15,082 yuan/ton, and the CC Index 3128B increased by 0.12% to 15,234 yuan/ton. The FC Index M 1% decreased by 0.13% to 13,541 yuan/ton. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract increased by 1.21% to 1252 yuan/ton, and 3128B - 05 contract increased by 0.53% to 957 yuan/ton. The difference between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% increased by 2.11% to 1693 yuan/ton [2]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9% to 218.98 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 1.8% to 89.84 million tons. Imports increased by 66.7% to 5.00 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 8.0% to 30.10 million tons. The year - on - year inventory of the textile industry decreased by 57.9% to 0.80. The inventory days of yarn decreased by 2.4% to 27.67 days, and the inventory days of grey cloth decreased by 3.0% to 36.14 days. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang increased by 22.6% to 53.46 million tons. The immediate processing profit of spinning mills C32s decreased by 1.0% to - 2037.40 yuan/ton. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles decreased by 24.7% to 961.00 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles decreased by 5.3% to 1.80%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products decreased by 3.7% to 116.04 billion US dollars, and the year - on - year growth rate increased by 131.7% to 0.52%. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 0.7% to 151.62 billion US dollars, and the year - on - year growth rate decreased by 176.8% to - 0.61 [2]. 3. Egg Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The report expects the egg price to maintain a bearish trend. The inventory of laying hens is still large, and the egg production is generally sufficient. There is an abundance of small - and medium - sized eggs in most production areas, and the supply of large - sized eggs has increased in some areas. Cold - stored eggs are planned to enter the market soon, which may further increase the supply pressure. The current downstream digestion speed is average [6]. Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 2.70% to 3098 yuan/500KG, and the egg 10 contract decreased by 2.17% to 3113 yuan/500KG. The 9 - 10 spread decreased by 850.00% to - 15 yuan/500KG [5]. - Spot Market: The egg price in the producing areas increased by 5.47% to 3.31 yuan/jin, and the basis increased by 567.84% to 198 yuan/500KG [5]. - Industry Situation: The price of laying - hen chicks decreased by 6.49% to 3.60 yuan/feather, the price of culled hens decreased by 3.53% to 5.47 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 7.20% to 2.45, and the breeding profit decreased by 111.23% to - 21.44 yuan/feather [5]. 4. Pig Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The spot price of pigs has stabilized, and downstream procurement is smooth. However, the reluctance of farmers to sell at low prices and some secondary fattening activities have supported the pig price. Currently, both supply and demand are weak. It is expected that the group farms' pig sales in August will continue to recover, and farmers who previously held back large pigs also need to sell them. Therefore, it is still difficult to be optimistic about the future pig price. The far - month 01 contract is greatly affected by policies. At the same time, as the pig weight is continuously decreasing and the growth rate of production capacity is slowing down, the support at the lower level is increasing. It is not recommended to blindly short, but in the case where the futures market has offered good hedging profits, the impact of hedging funds also needs to be considered [8]. Summary by Directory - Futures Market: The basis of the main contract decreased by 9.33% to - 410 yuan/ton. The price of cattle pigs 2511 decreased by 0.90% to 13,820 yuan/ton, and pigs 2601 decreased by 0.46% to 14,160 yuan/ton. The 11 - 1 spread of pigs decreased by 21.43% to - 340 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract increased by 9.79% to 71,193, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 430 [8]. - Spot Market: The pig price in Henan decreased by 100 yuan to 13,750 yuan/ton, in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan to 13,900 yuan/ton, in Liaoning decreased by 50 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton, and in Hebei decreased by 100 yuan to 13,700 yuan/ton. The prices in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Anhui remained unchanged at 13,500 yuan/ton, 15,040 yuan/ton, and 13,760 yuan/ton respectively [8]. - Industry Situation: The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 0.54% to 140,396. The weekly white - strip pig price remained unchanged at 20.31 yuan/kg. The weekly price of piglets and sows remained unchanged at 32.53 yuan/kg. The weekly average slaughter weight increased slightly to 127.82 kg. The weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 36.07% to 29 yuan/head, and the weekly profit from purchasing piglets decreased by 17.08% to - 157 yuan/head. The monthly inventory of sows capable of reproduction increased by 0.02% to 4043 million heads [8]. 5. Meal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The USDA monthly supply - and - demand report has supported the US soybean price by adjusting the planting area, yield forecast, and inventory - to - sales ratio. However, the high - quality rate of new - season US soybeans remains high, and China has not yet imported new - season US soybeans, so there is still pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the results of the profarmer inspection this week. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce had a short - term positive impact on the market, but the futures price has since declined, and it is difficult to continue to rise in the short term. In terms of the spot basis, the current inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is continuously increasing, and the short - term supply maintains a high arrival volume and high operating rate, so the spot price is still under pressure. In operation, the bottom range of meal products has moved up, and the overall trend is still upward. Long - term long positions can be gradually established at low levels [12]. Summary by Directory - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3070 yuan/ton. The price of the M2601 contract increased by 0.57% to 3155 yuan/ton. The basis of M2601 decreased by 26.87% to - 85 yuan/ton. The spot basis in Jiangsu is m2601 - 160. The import crushing profit of US Gulf shipments remained unchanged, and the import crushing profit of Brazilian October shipments decreased by 19.6% to 74 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,925 [12]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.53% to 2650 yuan/ton. The price of the RM2601 contract increased by 1.73% to 2590 yuan/ton. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 6.25% to 60 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit of Canadian November shipments remained unchanged at 596 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 9821 [12]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans decreased by 0.25% to 3950 yuan/ton. The price of the soybean - one main contract decreased by 0.30% to 4044 yuan/ton. The basis of the soybean - one main contract increased by 2.08% to - 94 yuan/ton. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 3700 yuan/ton. The price of the soybean - two main contract increased by 0.21% to 3800 yuan/ton. The basis of the soybean - two main contract decreased by 8.70% to - 100 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.25% to 12,632 [12]. - Spreads: The 09 - 01 spread of soybean meal decreased by 1.85% to - 55 yuan/ton, the 09 - 01 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 4.85% to 8 yuan/ton. The spot oil - to - meal ratio increased by 0.57% to 2.88, and the main - contract oil - to - meal ratio decreased by 0.78% to 2.70. The spot difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 8.70% to 420 yuan/ton, and the 2509 difference decreased by 4.40% to 565 yuan/ton [12]. 6. Corn Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The policy - end import corn auction is held twice a week, with about 40 million tons put up for auction, but the transaction rate is less than 20%, and the trading is relatively light. Affected by the upcoming new - grain harvest, the rebound of the spot price is limited. There are no obvious bright spots on the demand side, and deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises mainly consume their own inventories and purchase corn on a just - in - time basis. On the substitution side, the price of wheat is strongly supported by the purchase - at - support - price policy, and the price difference between corn and wheat is at a similar level, which has squeezed some of the corn demand. In summary, the overall market trading is light, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing, so the futures price will maintain a weak - fluctuating trend. In the medium term, the cost of new - season corn will decrease, and the production may increase steadily, resulting in obvious supply pressure. The futures price will move towards the new - season cost. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [14]. Summary by Directory - Corn: The price of the corn 2511 contract decreased by 0.59% to 2177 yuan/ton. The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.43% to 2310 yuan/ton. The basis increased by 2.31% to 133 yuan/ton. The 11 - 3 spread of corn decreased by 18.75% to - 19 yuan/ton. The bulk grain price at Shekou remained unchanged at 2400 yuan/ton. The north - south trading profit increased by 250.00% to 14 yuan/ton. The CIF price remained unchanged at 1926 yuan/ton, and the import profit remained unchanged at 474 yuan/ton. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 13.21% to 180. The position increased by 3