油菜籽进口反倾销初裁，菜粕维持偏强格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - Rapeseed import anti-dumping preliminary ruling is established, and rapeseed meal will maintain a relatively strong pattern in the medium and long term [1][41] Summary by Directory I. Preliminary Ruling on Anti-dumping Investigation of Canadian Rapeseed Imports by China - The preliminary ruling on the anti-dumping investigation of rapeseed imports is established. On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement, determining the existence of dumping and requiring importers to pay a 75.8% margin from August 14 [8][9] - There is a small probability of a turnaround between China and Canada before the final ruling. Stakeholders can submit written comments within 10 days, and Canada may send a high-level trade envoy for consultations [10] - Canadian rapeseed imports will be stagnant in the short term, and alternatives are being sought. Ports may require ships to pay the margin or return, and importers may turn to Russia, Australia, and the Middle East [11] II. Analysis of the Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Domestic Meal - Soybean meal enters the peak season of supply and demand, and its price is stable with a slight upward trend. The arrival volume of imported soybeans declined in August but increased year-on-year, oil mill soybean crush volume remained high, and soybean meal production increased in July [12][13][14] - Rapeseed meal demand is at the end of the peak season, with both bullish and bearish factors. Aquatic product demand will be concentrated in the next three months, but the annual import volume of rapeseed is insufficient, and the demand will enter the off-season after the National Day [28] III. Rapeseed Meal Maintains a Relatively Strong Pattern in the Medium and Long Term - There are uncertainties in Sino-US trade negotiations and US soybean growing weather, as well as in the final ruling of the rapeseed anti-dumping investigation and China's dependence on soybean and rapeseed imports [41] - Key future variables include the yield per unit and total output of the new US soybean season, and the follow-up of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian trade negotiations [41] - Bullish factors include uncertainties in new US soybean weather and trade negotiations, and the peak demand season of domestic soybean meal. Bearish factors include the relatively high short-term inventory after the concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the passing of the peak season of aquatic product demand, and the futures premium structure [43]