集运早报-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is $2,850 (2,000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is $2,575 (1,770 points). Among them, the PA Alliance offers $2,500, MSK offers $2,300, and the OA Alliance offers $2,700 - $2,800. From a fundamental perspective, in week 33, MSK had better cargo collection, OA was average, and PA was poor. In week 34, cargo collection significantly declined, and some shipping companies faced pressure to accept cargo. This week, the overall shipping capacity for September has been reduced due to an additional suspension of sailings by the PA Alliance in week 37. The average weekly shipping capacities in August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, the capacities are 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU. In terms of strategy, the overall logic of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. This is mainly because the overall situation in September is loose, and the subsequent driving forces are weak. Currently, the October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot price, and it is expected that there is still room for further decline. The valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear and is more affected by driving forces. However, due to low positions, they are greatly affected by macro and capital behaviors [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For the EC2508 contract, the previous closing price was 2,088.2, with a change of 0.21%, a basis of 147.3, a previous trading volume of 250, a previous open interest of 2,452, and an open interest change of - 54. For other contracts (EC2510, EC2512, etc.), detailed price, change, basis, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change data are also provided [2]. - Regarding the month - to - month spreads, for example, the EC2508 - 2510 spread was 715.1, with comparisons to the previous one, two, and three days and percentage changes also given [2]. Spot Index Information - The SCHIS index, updated weekly on Mondays, was 2,235.48 on August 11, 2025, with a change of - 2.71% compared to the previous period. The SCFI index, updated weekly on Fridays, was $1,820/TEU on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 7.19% compared to the previous period. The CCFI index, updated weekly on Fridays, was 1,790.47 on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 0.48% compared to the previous period. The NCFI index was 1,188.69 on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 5.49% compared to the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is $2,850 (2,000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is $2,575 (1,770 points). On Monday, EMC's price dropped by $200 to $2,760, MSC's price dropped by $250 to $2,590, and MSK's price rose from $2,300 to $2,490 [3]. Related News - On August 19, Middle - East media reported that Hamas agreed to a 60 - day cease - fire and release half of the detainees. Israeli media reported that Israel received Hamas' latest cease - fire proposal. Note that the XSI - C index is released with a three - day delay [4]