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《农产品》日报-20250819
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-19 05:17
  1. Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Sugar - Brazilian sugarcane yield decline and concerns over lower sugar - making ratios may lead to a downward revision of Brazil's sugar production. The ICE raw sugar is expected to face difficulty in significant short - term drops and may test the 17 - cent/lb resistance level. In China, sugar imports in July are expected to be much higher than the same period last year, but with the price rebound and improved de - stocking in Guangxi, the overall sugar price is supported. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade in a range with reduced downward momentum [1]. Cotton - After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the downstream industry has slightly improved. The inventory of cotton yarn products has decreased slightly, and the spinning mills' operation rate has remained stable. The cotton price is supported in the short term, but the expected increase in new - season cotton production may put pressure on the price when new cotton is listed [2]. Eggs - With a large number of laying hens in stock, egg production is generally abundant. Cold - storage eggs are expected to enter the market soon, increasing supply pressure. The downstream digestion speed is average, so egg prices are expected to remain bearish [6]. Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has stabilized, and downstream procurement is smooth. However, farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices and some secondary fattening activities support the price. The supply and demand are both weak. In August, the group - farm slaughter is expected to recover, and there is also an inventory of large pigs from small - scale farmers waiting to be sold. The long - term price outlook is not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract is affected by policies, and with the slowdown in production capacity growth, there is some support at the bottom [7]. Meal - The USDA monthly supply - demand report has supported US soybeans, but the high good - rate of new - season US soybeans and China's non - import of new - season US soybeans still pose upward pressure. After a short - term rally, the meal futures may face difficulties in further climbing. The domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and the spot market is under pressure. It is recommended to buy long - term contracts at low prices [11]. Corn - Policy - driven import corn auctions have low trading volumes. On the supply side, the inventory of traders in production areas is low, and the price is weak in the Northeast. In North China, the price rebound is limited due to the upcoming new - season corn. The demand side lacks obvious highlights, and the substitution of wheat also squeezes corn demand. The corn futures are expected to trade weakly in the short term and may face more pressure from the new - season supply in the medium term [13]. Fats and Oils - Palm oil may face downward pressure in the international market but has an upward trend in the domestic Dalian market, with an expected target of 9800 - 10000 yuan. Soybean oil is affected by the potential decline in US soybean oil industrial use and the drop in CBOT soybean prices. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the spot basis quotation may vary with the futures price movement [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Futures Market - The price of Sugar 2601 increased by 0.14% to 5672 yuan/ton, while Sugar 2509 decreased by 0.07% to 5736 yuan/ton. The ICE raw sugar主力 dropped by 1.40% to 16.24 cents/lb. The 1 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 15.79% to - 64 yuan/ton. The main - contract open interest rose by 2.34% to 322,832 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.01% to 16,931 [1]. Spot Market - The prices in Nanning and Kunming remained stable and decreased slightly respectively. The Nanning basis increased by 1.67% to 244 yuan/ton, and the Kunming basis decreased by 0.83% to 119 yuan/ton. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased slightly [1]. Industry Situation - Nationally, the cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% to 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sales increased by 15.76% to 9.55 million tons. The cumulative sales ratio increased by 3.36% to 85.60%. In Guangxi, the cumulative production increased by 4.59% to 6.465 million tons, but the monthly sales decreased by 37.99% to 355,500 tons. The industrial inventory decreased in most regions, and sugar imports increased by 160% to 130,000 tons [1]. Cotton Futures Market - Cotton 2509 decreased by 0.04% to 13,830 yuan/ton, and Cotton 2601 increased by 0.04% to 14,125 yuan/ton. The ICE US cotton主力 rose by 0.53% to 67.84 cents/lb. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3.51% to - 295 yuan/ton. The main - contract open interest increased by 1.77% to 486,067 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% to 7,762 [2]. Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B cotton increased slightly, while the FC Index:M: 1% decreased slightly. The basis of 3128B - 01 contract increased by 1.21% to 1,252 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The commercial inventory decreased by 13.9% to 2.1898 million tons, and the industrial inventory increased by 1.8% to 0.8984 million tons. The import volume increased by 66.7% to 50,000 tons. The inventory in bonded areas decreased by 8.0% to 301,000 tons. The inventory days of yarn and grey cloth decreased, and the cotton outbound shipment increased by 22.6% to 534,600 tons. The processing profit of spinning mills decreased, and the retail sales of clothing and textiles decreased [2]. Eggs Futures and Spot Market - The prices of the 09 and 10 egg contracts decreased by 2.70% and 2.17% respectively. The egg price in the production area increased by 5.47% to 3.31 yuan/jin. The basis increased by 567.84% to 198 yuan/500KG. The 9 - 10 spread decreased by 850.00% to - 15 [5]. Industry Situation - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks decreased by 6.49% to 3.60 yuan/chick, the price of culled chickens decreased by 3.53% to 5.47 yuan/jin, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 7.20% to 2.45, and the breeding profit decreased by 111.23% to - 21.44 yuan/chick [5]. Pigs Futures Market - The prices of the 2511 and 2601 live - pig contracts decreased by 0.90% and 0.46% respectively. The 11 - 1 spread decreased by 21.43% to - 340 yuan/ton. The main - contract open interest increased by 9.79% to 71,193 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. Spot Market - The spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, with the exception of Guangdong where the price remained stable. The main - contract basis decreased by 9.33% to - 410 yuan/ton [7]. Industry Situation - The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 0.54% to 140,396 heads. The weekly white - strip price, pig -let price, and sow price remained unchanged. The average slaughter weight increased slightly. The self - breeding profit decreased by 36.07% to 29 yuan/head, and the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 17.08% to - 157 yuan/head. The monthly inventory of breeding sows increased slightly [7]. Meal Futures and Spot Market - The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained stable, while the M2601 contract increased by 0.57%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 26.87%. The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal increased by 1.53%, and the RM2601 contract increased by 1.73%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 6.25%. The price of Harbin soybeans decreased by 0.25%, and the price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained stable [11]. Industry Situation - The soybean and meal inventories in China are rising, and the short - term supply is high due to high arrivals and high operation rates, which suppresses the spot market [11]. Corn Futures and Spot Market - The price of the 2511 corn contract decreased by 0.59%. The basis of Jinzhou Port increased by 2.31%. The 11 - 3 spread decreased by 18.75%. The price of the 2509 corn starch contract decreased by 0.77%, and the basis increased by 20.83% [13]. Industry Situation - Policy - driven import corn auctions have low trading volumes. The supply in production areas is weak in the Northeast and limited by the upcoming new - season corn in North China. The demand side lacks highlights, and wheat substitution squeezes corn demand [13]. Fats and Oils Futures and Spot Market - The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.57%, the Y2601 contract decreased by 0.16%, and the basis increased by 29.36%. The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil increased by 2.90%, the P2601 contract increased by 1.49%, and the basis increased by 138.30%. The price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil increased by 1.31%, the OI601 contract increased by 0.46%, and the basis increased by 91.40% [16]. Industry Situation - Palm oil may face downward pressure in the international market but has an upward trend in the domestic market. Soybean oil is affected by the potential decline in US soybean oil industrial use and the drop in CBOT soybean prices. The supply of soybean oil in China is sufficient [16].