Group 1: Rubber Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The current rubber market lacks a clear directional guide, with both long and short factors intertwined. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The 01 contract price range is expected to be between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai increased by 150 yuan/ton to 14,900 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.02%. The whole latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 235 yuan/ton to - 920 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,600 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.34% [1]. - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 1035 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.36%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 18.75% [1]. - Fundamentals: In June, Thailand's rubber production increased by 120,400 tons to 392,600 tons, with a growth rate of 44.23%. Indonesia's production decreased by 24,100 tons to 176,200 tons, with a decline rate of 12.03%. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 2.28 percentage points to 72.07%, while that of all - steel tires increased by 2.09 percentage points to 63.09% [1]. - Inventory Change: As of August 15, the bonded area inventory decreased by 11,918 tons to 619,852 tons, with a decline rate of 1.89%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 4,234 tons to 46,469 tons, with a growth rate of 10.02% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Last week, the price of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, which will push up the cost of industrial silicon. Although the current production of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price drops to 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long. The main contract has shifted to SI2511 [3]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Main Contract Basis: The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,400 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 795 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 33.61% [3]. - Monthly Spread: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 33.33%. The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 50.00% [3]. - Fundamentals: In the month, the national industrial silicon production increased by 10,600 tons to 338,300 tons, with a growth rate of 3.23%. The production in Xinjiang decreased by 27,000 tons to 150,300 tons, with a decline rate of 15.21%. The production in Yunnan increased by 24,900 tons to 41,200 tons, with a growth rate of 153.86% [3]. - Inventory Change: As of the weekly data, Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 10 tons to 11,700 tons, with a growth rate of 0.09%. Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory increased by 80 tons to 3,140 tons, with a growth rate of 2.61% [3]. Group 3: Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Last week, the polysilicon price fluctuated strongly, mainly driven by two factors: concerns about inventory accumulation and an increase in warehouse receipts, and expectations of policy benefits. In August, both supply and demand increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, and there was still pressure on inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton, and the upper limit expected to be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider going long at low prices and buying put options to try shorting at high prices when volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re - feed polysilicon remained unchanged at 47,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) increased by 460 yuan/ton to - 5,280 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 8.01% [4]. - Futures Price and Monthly Spread: The main contract price decreased by 460 yuan/ton to 52,280 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.87%. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 50 yuan/ton to - 135 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 27.03% [4]. - Fundamentals: In the month, polysilicon production increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.10%. The import volume decreased by 200 tons to 800 tons, with a decline rate of 16.90%. The export volume increased by 800 tons to 2,100 tons, with a growth rate of 66.17% [4]. - Inventory Change: The polysilicon inventory increased by 9,000 tons to 242,000 tons, with a growth rate of 3.86%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 690 tons to 19,800 tons, with a growth rate of 3.61% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - Soda Ash: The previous news caused fluctuations in the futures market, but it has no impact on the soda ash supply for now. The weekly production has increased significantly, and the inventory has returned to the accumulation pattern. The overall fundamentals are in obvious surplus. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices [5]. - Glass: The near - month 09 contract has been weak, and the spot trading has weakened significantly. The market negative feedback continues. The far - month 01 contract shows a volatile pattern. The glass demand side has certain pressure, and in the long run, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Track the implementation of regional policies and the inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [5]. Summary by Directory - Glass - Related Price and Spread: The North China glass price remained unchanged at 1,150 yuan/ton. The East China price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,190 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 2.46%. The 2505 contract price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1,309 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.53% [5]. - Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread: The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan/ton. The 2505 contract price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1,450 yuan/ton, with a decline rate of 0.14% [5]. - Supply: The soda ash production rate increased by 2.24 percentage points to 87.32%. The weekly soda ash production increased by 17,000 tons to 761,300 tons, with a growth rate of 2.23% [5]. - Inventory: The glass inventory increased by 157,900 tons to 6,342,600 tons, with a growth rate of 2.55%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 29,000 tons to 1,893,800 tons, with a growth rate of 1.54% [5]. Group 5: Log Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Last week, the log futures price declined weakly, mainly because the recent increase in the number of seller - registered warehouse receipts suppressed the market, and the willingness of buyers to take delivery needs further observation. The current spot market is relatively strong in the short term. The demand side remains firm, and the inventory has decreased significantly. It is recommended to go long at low prices, paying attention to the support level around 800 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Price: The 2509 log contract price decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 811 yuan/ton. The price of 3.9A small - radiation pine at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 720 yuan/cubic meter. The new round of FOB price remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [6]. - Cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.182. The import theoretical cost decreased by 0.04 yuan to 818.62 yuan [6]. - Supply and Demand and Inventory: The port shipping volume decreased by 27,000 cubic meters to 1.733 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 1.51%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6 to 47, with a decline rate of 11.32%. As of August 15, the national coniferous log inventory decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 3.06 million cubic meters, with a decline rate of 0.65% [6].
广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250819
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-19 07:12