瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat. There are obvious signs of bottom - cost support for industrial silicon, but the top - inventory pressure still exists. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term bargain - hunting for long positions if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,625 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 286,605 lots, a decrease of 11,014 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 97,580 lots, a decrease of 12,014 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 50,710 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 20 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 324,700 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 75.05%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - The Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a pre - notice about holding a symposium for photovoltaic enterprises, scheduled for 9:00 am on August 19. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy [2] Supply - side Analysis - In the southwest region, with the deepening of the wet season, the advantage of electricity prices is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan continues to rise, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase week - on - week next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [2] Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon market, it remained flat this week, with a slight decline in profits and a flat operating rate, having limited driving force for the demand of industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, although the current operating rate is low, there is pressure from potential resumption of production and new production capacity; the short - term weak demand situation is difficult to improve significantly, but the cost support is obvious, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2]