Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, spot premium, and a weakening basis. - Fundamentally, the supply from overseas mines has increased, and the TC spot index has significantly rebounded due to traders' shipments. - In terms of supply, due to the increase in copper ore supply and the relatively strong operation of the spot market, smelters are more active in production, and the domestic supply has increased. - In terms of demand, the impact of the consumption off - season has weakened. As it transitions from the off - season to the peak season, consumption has slightly improved. Downstream inquiries have become more active, and there is some demand for advance stocking, with the demand outlook turning positive. - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with inventory remaining at a medium - low level, and the industry outlook is improving. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008 compared to the previous period. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, both lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous period. The price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,751.50 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.50 US dollars. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 140,367 lots, a decrease of 7,066 lots. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are 5,580 lots, an increase of 1,394 lots. The LME copper inventory is 155,600 tons, a decrease of 200 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,375 tons, a decrease of 150 tons. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 25,498 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 52 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the CU main contract is 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 96.75 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, a decrease of 4.58 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 37.68 US dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 US dollars. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi is 69,430 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. The price of copper concentrates in Yunnan is 70,130 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 2,910.66 billion yuan, an increase of 870.80 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 53,579.77 billion yuan, an increase of 6,922.21 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220.70 thousand pieces, an increase of 183,435.30 thousand pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 7.03%, a decrease of 0.01%. The 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.50%, a decrease of 0.06%. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month is 8.92%, a decrease of 0.0029%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.28, a decrease of 0.0008. [2] 3.7 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang of the State Council emphasized the need to further improve the implementation efficiency of macro - policies, respond to market concerns in a timely manner, and stabilize market expectations. Stimulate consumption potential, clean up restrictive measures in the consumption field, and cultivate and expand new consumption growth points. Expand effective investment, and take measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market. - The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Conference on Friday. Different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech. - The Ifo Institute: Economists from many countries generally expect that the global inflation level will remain at a relatively high level in the next few years. The surveyed economists expect the global average inflation rate in 2025 to be 4.0%, the same as the previous quarter's expectation. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, new - car businesses of automobile dealers suffered serious losses in the first half of the year, and the problem of tight liquidity spread throughout the circulation industry. Looking forward to 2025, dealers expect a slight increase or flat performance, but their expectations for growth are lower than those at the end of last year. - According to Shanghai Securities News, China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth period to a stable development period, and urban development is shifting from a large - scale incremental expansion stage to a stage mainly focused on improving the quality and efficiency of the stock. Urban renewal has become an important turning point in urban development, which helps to improve the quality and efficiency of the stock, activate domestic demand, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the real estate industry. [2]
瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250819
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-19 09:02