瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face downward pressure overall. However, there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract at low levels [2]. - For glass, the current price is still relatively high. If it falls to around 1100 yuan, there may be a rebound opportunity if there is an interest rate cut. It is recommended to go long on the glass main contract at low levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1358 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1196 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main contract position is 1428848 hands, up 29928 hands; glass main contract position is 1196462 hands, up 81442 hands [2]. - Soda ash 9 - month to 1 - month contract spread is - 113 yuan, up 1 yuan; glass 9 - month to 1 - month contract spread is - 176 yuan, up 6 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 106 yuan, up 9 yuan; glass basis is - 112 yuan, up 16 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash price is 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash price is 1325 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash price is 1265 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; Central China light soda ash price is 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass large plate price is 1084 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass large plate price is 1110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 87.32%, up 1.91 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.34%, up 2.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number is 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 189.73 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 6342.6 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, aiming to stimulate consumption potential and stabilize the real - estate market [2]. - In July, the prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [2].