Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost supports the offer price of cis - butadiene rubber, but with the restart of some devices, domestic supply may increase significantly. Downstream procurement may be cautious, and the finished - product inventory level is expected to rise. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - Last week, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises' maintenance dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate, while the resumption of work of all - steel tire maintenance enterprises drove up the capacity utilization rate. There is still room for a slight increase in capacity utilization, but the general order performance will limit the increase [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,840 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 35,780, with a week - on - week increase of 18,326. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different petrochemical companies in different regions have increased, with increases ranging from 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 66.6 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 63.42 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 825 dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 570.75 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.75 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1,080 dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 20,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5,700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.65 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.65 percentage points. The weekly production profit is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 124 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 30,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 63.09%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.09 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons, or - 3.18% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [2]. - In July 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China was 129,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons, or + 5.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250819
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-19 08:59