Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with large price fluctuations and an overall positive outlook. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with expanding green columns. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 87,540 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 149,845 hands, up 13,913 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 414,097 hands, down 7,009 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 160 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 23,555 hands/ton, up 70 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 83,400 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,840 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 990 US dollars/ton, up 79 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,940 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, up 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, down 4%; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.53 million yuan/ton, up 0.03 million yuan; the price of lithium cobaltate is 235,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 148,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 130,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, up 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.43 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 51%, down 1%; the monthly output of new - energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 1,243,000 vehicles, down 25,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 vehicles, down 67,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new - energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 44.99%, up 0.68%; the cumulative sales volume of new - energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, up 2,286,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new - energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new - energy vehicles is 1.308 million vehicles, up 600,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 69.33%, up 0.69%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 50.74%, up 0.36% [2] Option Situation - The total call position is 148,147 contracts, down 3,229 contracts; the total put position is 138,973 contracts, up 16,351 contracts; the total position put - call ratio is 93.81%, up 12.8026%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.46%, down 0.0202% [2] Industry News - Premier Li Qiang: Consolidate and expand the momentum of economic recovery, strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals. Further enhance the implementation effectiveness of macro - policies, evaluate policy implementation, respond to market concerns, and stabilize market expectations. Strengthen the domestic big cycle. - According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the first half of the year, new - car businesses of automobile dealers suffered serious losses, and the problem of tight liquidity spread across the entire circulation industry. In 2025, dealers expect a slight increase or flat trend, but the growth expectation is lower than that at the end of last year. - TrendForce: In the second quarter, global new - energy vehicle (NEV) sales, including battery - electric vehicles (BEV), plug - in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and hydrogen - fuel - cell vehicles, reached 4.868 million, a year - on - year increase of 30%. Including hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), EV sales in the second quarter reached 6.456 million, accounting for 29% of global vehicle sales [2] Viewpoint Summary - The put - call ratio of option positions is 93.81%, up 12.8026% compared with the previous period. The call position in the option market dominates, the option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases [2] Technical Analysis - On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding [2] Operation Suggestion - Conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250819
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-19 08:59