农产品早报-20250820

Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the research center's agricultural products team on August 20, 2025, covering corn, starch, sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, and pigs [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Corn prices will continue to fluctuate with an upper limit and a lower support in the short term, and are expected to decline under pressure in the medium to long term [3] - Starch prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term and remain bearish in the medium to long term [3] - Sugar prices are under pressure in the international market, and the domestic market is expected to face upward pressure on the futures price [6] - Cotton prices have limited downside space, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [9] - Egg prices may trigger more old chicken eliminations if the rebound in late August is less than expected [13] - Apple prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [15] - Pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [15] Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Price Data: From August 13 - 19, 2025, corn prices in some regions remained stable, with a 7 - point increase in the basis, and a 1 - point decrease in import profit. Starch prices were stable, with a 31 - point increase in the basis and a 3 - point increase in processing profit [2] - Market Analysis: In the short term, corn prices will continue to fluctuate, and starch prices will continue to be weakly volatile. In the medium to long term, corn prices are expected to decline under pressure, and starch prices remain bearish [3] Sugar - Price Data: From August 13 - 19, 2025, sugar spot prices in some regions remained stable, with an 11 - point increase in the basis, a 16 - point decrease in import profit, and a 445 - point decrease in warehouse receipts [6] - Market Analysis: The international sugar market is under pressure due to the peak crushing season in Brazil. The domestic market is expected to face upward pressure on the futures price due to the large - scale arrival of imported sugar [6] Cotton - Price Data: From August 13 - 19, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5 points, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 19 points, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 106 points [9] - Market Analysis: Cotton prices have entered a consolidation phase, and if there are no major macro - risk events, the downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [9] Eggs - Price Data: From August 13 - 19, 2025, egg prices in some regions remained stable, the basis decreased by 30 points, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.01 points [13] - Market Analysis: Egg prices rebounded rapidly from the low level in July but declined in early August due to supply and demand factors. If the price rebound in late August is less than expected, more old chickens may be eliminated [13] Apples - Price Data: From August 13 - 19, 2025, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, the national inventory increased by 77,000 tons, and the basis for different contracts changed [14][15] - Market Analysis: The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to last year. The consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is at the lowest level in the past five years. Attention should be paid to the situation after bag removal [15] Pigs - Price Data: From August 13 - 19, 2025, pig prices in some regions increased by 0.10 points, and the basis increased by 20 points [15] - Market Analysis: Pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term due to insufficient capacity reduction and supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm, weather, and policies [15]