Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The glass market is expected to be mainly volatile and weak in the short - term due to the fading of macro - level positives and the weak fundamentals of glass. In the long - run, it is expected to have a wide - range volatile operation, with uncertainty about the sustainability of inventory reduction [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased by 1.32% to 1196 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 1084 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 12.50% to - 112 yuan [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1084 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [11]. Fundamentals - Cost Side The report does not provide specific content about the cost side. Fundamentals - Production and Supply - The number of glass production lines in operation is 223, with an operating rate of 75.34%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history but showing signs of stabilization and recovery [21][23]. Fundamentals - Demand - The terminal demand in the real estate sector is still weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.55% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][41]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides a float glass annual supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in production, consumption, and other indicators over the years [42]. 4. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. Negative Factors - The terminal demand in the real estate sector is weak, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has faded [4]. 5. Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream enterprises have carried out phased replenishment, leading to a reduction in glass factory inventory. However, the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable, and it is expected that glass will mainly have a wide - range volatile operation [5].
大越期货玻璃早报-20250820
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-20 01:26