大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the "anti - involution" policy - driven gains have subsided, crude oil prices have declined, and the demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, while the industrial inventory is neutral. For PP, the "anti - involution" policy - driven gains have also fallen back, crude oil prices have dropped, and although the demand for downstream products such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly, the industrial inventory is neutral [4][7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5, also in contraction. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to fundamentals. Short - term oil prices fluctuated and declined. On the supply - demand side, the overall demand for agricultural films was lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate was low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 87, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.2%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 505,000 tons (-71,000), which is neutral [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With the decline in policy - driven gains, falling crude oil prices, and lower - than - expected agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory, PE is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. - Likely Factors: Cost support [6]. - Negative Factors: Weak demand and falling crude oil prices [6]. - Main Logic: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but after the sentiment cooled, it returned to fundamentals. Short - term oil prices fluctuated and declined. On the supply - demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for products such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7030 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 14, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.2%, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 588,000 tons (+1,000), indicating a bearish signal [7]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With the decline in policy - driven gains, falling crude oil prices, slightly improved downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, PP is expected to show a volatile trend today [7]. - Likely Factors: Cost support [9]. - Negative Factors: Weak demand and falling crude oil prices [9]. - Main Logic: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain trends. For example, the PE import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 and then increased slightly to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity has been growing steadily, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production volume, net import volume, and apparent consumption have changed accordingly. The PP import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then increased to 9.5% in 2024 [17].