大越期货尿素早报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall oversupply in China, with high daily production and inventory levels. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but export profits remain strong despite a recent decline, and the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The urea futures price is expected to fluctuate today, with the international urea price remaining strong [4]. - The main bullish factor is the strong international price, while the main bearish factors are the high production and low domestic demand. The main influencing factors are the international price and the marginal change in domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: After the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled, the urea futures price returned to the fundamentals. On the 19th, rumors of increased urea exports to India during the China - India foreign ministers' meeting led to a rise in futures prices. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply in the domestic urea market exceeds demand, export profits have declined but remain strong, and the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 33, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.8%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (- 0.2 million tons), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized, and the domestic market is still in a state of oversupply [4]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | ---- | ---- | | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1850 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1860 (unchanged), the Henan spot price is 1850 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2944 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 01 contract is 1817 (+ 63), the basis is 33 (- 63), the price of UR05 is 1839 (+ 49), and the price of UR09 is 1783 (+ 25) [6]. | | Inventory | The warehouse receipt is 3573 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (- 0.2 million tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 0.968 million tons (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 0.489 million tons (unchanged) [6]. | Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10] |