PTA、MEG早报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures rose and then fell yesterday, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The processing margin has remained low recently, some PTA plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load has rebounded. There is no pressure for PTA to accumulate inventory in August. However, the oil price is under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The polyester load rebounded to around 89.4% last week, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased, with gradually strengthening demand support. During the recent price correction of MEG, polyester factories actively participated in price - fixing, and the port shipments will improve in the future. The inventory at ports is not expected to increase significantly from August to September. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Analysis - Fundamentals: Yesterday, PTA futures rose and then fell, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and a slightly stronger spot basis. Some polyester factories restocked. The 8 - month cargo was negotiated at 09 - 510, with the price negotiation range around 46704705. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 - 8 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4690, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 44, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Force Position: The net short position is decreasing [5]. - Expectation: It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on the oil price and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [5]. 3.2 MEG Analysis - Fundamentals: On Tuesday, the price center of MEG rose steadily, and the market negotiation was fair. The night - session MEG fluctuated within a narrow range, and the negotiation was relatively limited. The domestic MEG market rose steadily, and the trading was fair. The spot was negotiated and traded at a high level of over 4480 yuan/ton, and the negotiation atmosphere became a bit stalemate in the afternoon. In the US dollar market, the center of the MEG outer market fluctuated upwards. The recent shipments were negotiated and traded at around 521 US dollars/ton in the morning, and then the market rose steadily, with the recent shipments negotiated at around 523 - 525 US dollars/ton. The domestic - foreign price inversion widened, and the buying was relatively weak [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4455, and the basis of the 09 contract is 71, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Force Position: The main force has a net short position, and the short position is increasing [7]. - Expectation: It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the rebound speed of the polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3 Influence Factor Summary - Positive Factors: Some PTA plants are planned to be under maintenance in August, and the supply - demand expectation has improved. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market's expectation of demand start has also been slightly reflected [8]. - Negative Factors: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [8]. - Main Logic and Risk Points: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be watched for the market rebound [8]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Tables - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [9]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table: It shows the ethylene glycol production capacity, production, import, export, consumption, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. 3.5 Price - Related Charts - PET Bottle Chip: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, etc. of PET bottle chips from 2020 to 2025 [13][16][20][21]. - PTA and MEG: It includes the price spreads (such as TA1 - 5, TA5 - 9, TA9 - 1, EG1 - 5, EG5 - 9, EG9 - 1), basis, and spot price spreads between PTA and MEG from 2019 to 2025 [23][29][37]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - It includes the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and various types of polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025 [39][41][44]. 3.7 Operating Rate Analysis - Polyester Upstream: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [50]. - Polyester Downstream: It includes the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54]. 3.8 Profit Analysis - PTA: It shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 to 2025 [58]. - MEG: It shows the production profit of MEG produced by different methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025 [61]. - Polyester Fibers: It shows the production profit of polyester short fibers, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025 [64][65][67].