沪锌期货早报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile downward trend in the previous trading day, with increased trading volume and more short - position increases. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. The price of Shanghai zinc ZN2510 is expected to move weakly in a volatile manner [2][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,260, and the basis was +55, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 19, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,650 tons to 72,200 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants remained unchanged at 32,538 tons [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The Shanghai zinc futures showed a volatile downward trend in the previous trading day, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main players held a net short position, and the short positions increased, showing a bearish situation [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on August 19 - For the zinc futures contracts with different delivery months, prices generally declined. For example, the contract 2510 had a previous settlement price of 22,395, an opening price of 22,320, and a settlement reference price of 22,245, with a decline of 190 [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on August 19 - The prices of various zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingot, galvanized sheet, etc. generally declined. For example, the price of zinc ingot in Aoshang was 22,260, a decline of 80 [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 7 - 18, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 91,300 tons on August 7 to 115,000 tons on August 18 [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on August 19 - The total zinc warrants in the futures exchange were 32,538 tons, with no change compared with the previous day [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 19 - The LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,650 tons. For example, in Singapore, the inventory decreased from 75,750 tons to 72,100 tons [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 19 - The prices of zinc concentrate in major cities generally declined by 60 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 16,750 to 16,950 yuan/ton for 50% grade [9]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 19 - The prices of zinc ingots from major smelters generally declined by 100 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 21,900 to 22,530 yuan/ton [13]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10% [15]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 19 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade ranged from 3,400 to 4,100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 75 US dollars/kiloton [17]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on August 19 - For the zinc contract zn2510, the total trading volume of 20 futures companies was 170,862 lots, an increase of 26,817 lots compared with the previous day. The total long positions were 67,903 lots, an increase of 1,331 lots, and the total short positions were 73,026 lots, an increase of 10,736 lots [18].