大越期货油脂早报-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is El Niño weather. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The main long positions in soybean oil have increased, indicating a bullish signal. [3] - The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production decline falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season, presenting a neutral situation. [3][4] - The spot price of soybean oil is 8,580, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [4] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [4] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [4] - Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600. [3] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The main short positions in palm oil have decreased, indicating a bearish signal. [5] - Similar to the soybean oil situation, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - The spot price of palm oil is 9,650, with a basis of 10, indicating a neutral situation. [5] - On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, a bullish signal. [5] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [5] - Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,300 - 9,700. [5] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The main short positions in rapeseed oil have increased, indicating a bearish signal. [6] - The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is the same as above, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 50, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, a bullish signal. [6] - On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, a bearish signal. [6] - The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, a bullish signal. [6] - Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors include the US soybean stock-to-use ratio remaining around 4%, indicating tight supply, and the palm oil production reduction season. [7] - Bearish factors include the historically high prices of oils and fats, the continuous accumulation of domestic oils and fats inventories, the weak macroeconomy, and the high expected production of related oils and fats. [7]