大越期货沪铜早报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of copper show a mixed picture: smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, the July Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the basis shows a premium of the spot over the futures; the inventory situation is complex with a decrease in some and an increase in others; the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average moving downward; the main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing. The expected copper price will experience a shock adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. - The logical factors affecting copper include domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - The supply - demand balance of copper shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: The PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; smelting enterprises are reducing production and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, considered neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 79050 with a basis of 160, showing a premium of the spot over the futures, considered neutral [2]. - Inventory: On August 19, copper inventory decreased by 450 to 155150 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared to the previous week, considered neutral [2]. - Disk: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, considered bearish [2]. - Main Positions: The main net positions are long but the long positions are decreasing, considered bullish [2]. - Expectation: The copper price will experience a shock adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Influencing Factors: The logical factors affecting copper include domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Inventory - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared to the previous week [2]. - Bonded Area Inventory: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of copper shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, the production was 12060000 tons, the import was 3730000 tons, the export was 460000 tons, the apparent consumption was 15340000 tons, the actual consumption was 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance was a surplus of 110000 tons [21].