棉花早报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has significant differences in opinion regarding whether the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" will be prosperous. The 14,000 mark for Zhengzhou cotton is crucial. If it stabilizes above this level, there is potential for further upward movement; otherwise, there may be more room for decline [4]. - The overall situation of the cotton market is complex, with various factors presenting both positive and negative impacts [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton season. ICAC predicts a production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons; USDA forecasts production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons; the Ministry of Agriculture in China estimates production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38% [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,243 yuan, with a basis of 1,143 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - Inventory: The estimated ending inventory for the 2025/26 season by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture in July is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - Expectations: Zhengzhou cotton fell rapidly during the night session, breaking below the 14,000 mark. The 14,000 level is critical for future price movements [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Forecasts: There are differences in production, consumption, imports, and ending inventories among different countries and regions in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons. For example, China's production in August 2025/26 is forecasted to be 6.858 million tons, consumption is 8.165 million tons, imports are 1.154 million tons, and ending inventory is 7.625 million tons [10][11]. - ICAC Global Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [12]. - Ministry of Agriculture Data: In the 2025/26 season, China's production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.