沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250820

Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Nickel & Stainless Steel Morning Report - August 20, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - Shanghai Nickel: The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20-day moving average. Although the tight supply of imported goods has eased to some extent, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The cost line has risen slightly, and the inventory of stainless steel has decreased. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has declined year - on - year [2]. - Stainless Steel: The 2510 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The spot price remains flat, the cost line has risen slightly, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Overview - Nickel: On August 19, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,450 yuan, up 110 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of LME Nickel was 15,060 US dollars, down 110 US dollars from the previous day. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel remained unchanged at 121,650 yuan [12]. - Stainless Steel: On August 19, the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,885 yuan, down 125 yuan from the previous day. The prices of cold - rolled coils in major regions remained unchanged [12]. 2. Inventory Status - Nickel: As of August 19, LME nickel inventory was 209,328 tons, a decrease of 1,086 tons from the previous day; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 22,841 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous day [15]. - Stainless Steel: As of August 15, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons from the previous period. As of August 19, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 122,103 tons, an increase of 19,010 tons from the previous day [19][20]. 3. Cost Analysis - Nickel Ore and Ferronickel: The price of laterite nickel ore CIF remained stable on August 19. The price of high - nickel ferronickel was 928 yuan per nickel point, up 2 yuan from the previous day, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged at 3,420 yuan per ton [23]. - Stainless Steel Production Cost: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,902 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,587 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 16,529 yuan [25]. - Nickel Import Cost: The converted import price was 121,516 yuan per ton [29]. 4. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, firm nickel ore prices, and a slight rebound in ferronickel prices, with the cost line moving up slightly [7]. - Negative Factors: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new growth points in demand, and a long - term oversupply pattern. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has declined year - on - year [7].