Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of coking coal is expected to be strong in the short - term, as the raw material rigid demand remains supported by the increased profitability and high operating enthusiasm of coking enterprises, despite the cautious procurement from downstream and the slightly low market sentiment [2]. - The price of coke is expected to be stable to strong in the short - term, as the supply is expected to further shrink due to environmental protection policies, while the rigid demand from steel mills still exists and the inventory of coke enterprises remains low [5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is still tight, with slow resumption of previously shut - down mines and new shut - down mines. Price decline space is limited. [2] - Basis: Spot price is 1190, basis is - 4.5, spot is at a discount to futures. [2] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week. [2] - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. [2] - Main position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are decreasing. [2] - Expectation: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. [2] Coke - Fundamental: Affected by pre - parade environmental protection policies, coke supply is expected to shrink further, and inventory is low. [5] - Basis: Spot price is 1620, basis is - 88.5, spot is at a discount to futures. [5] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week. [5] - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above it. [5] - Main position: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are increasing. [5] - Expectation: The price is expected to be stable to strong in the short - term. [5] Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and limited supply increase. [4] - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices. [4] Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rate. [7] - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand. [7] Inventory - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week. [19] - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week. [24] - Steel mill inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week. [28] Other Data - Coke oven capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48%. [41] - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan. [45]
焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-20）-20250820
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-20 01:42