建信期货工业硅日报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures prices mainly fluctuated. The Si2511 closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, down 1.26%, with a trading volume of 438,313 lots and an open interest of 286,605 lots, a net decrease of 11,014 lots. The spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable. Multiple production areas' device production pushed the weekly output to 84,700 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the polysilicon production schedule in August will increase to 125,000 tons, and the organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and export parts are expected to remain stable, with a monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The supply and demand both increase, maintaining a loose balance (excluding 97 silicon and recycled silicon), and the industry has no inventory reduction drive. The anti-involution policy sets the bottom tone, but there is no implemented policy drive in the industrial silicon industry, and the weak and stable spot prices leave little room. Short-term attention should be paid to the convergent oscillation between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures prices mainly fluctuated. The Si2511 closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, down 1.26%, with a trading volume of 438,313 lots and an open interest of 286,605 lots, a net decrease of 11,014 lots [4] 3.2 Spot Prices - The spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of 553-grade in Sichuan was 8,850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 8,500 yuan/ton; the price of 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,700 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,950 yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - Multiple production areas' device production pushed the weekly output to 84,700 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of over 370,000 tons. On the demand side, the polysilicon production schedule in August will increase to 125,000 tons, and the organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and export parts are expected to remain stable, with a monthly demand of 360,000 tons. The supply and demand both increase, maintaining a loose balance (excluding 97 silicon and recycled silicon), and the industry has no inventory reduction drive. The anti-involution policy sets the bottom tone, but there is no implemented policy drive in the industrial silicon industry, and the weak and stable spot prices leave little room. Short-term attention should be paid to the convergent oscillation between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4] 3.4 Market News - On August 19th, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,625 lots, a net decrease of 85 lots from the previous trading day. The domestic DMC market price declined, with the mainstream trading range between 10,700 - 11,200 yuan/ton for the net water acceptance delivery price, and the average price decreased by 150 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The monomer plants competed to sell, and the low-end trading center of gravity declined yesterday. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative industrial silicon export volume was 340,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. Among them, the single-month export volume in June was 68,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 23% and a year-on-year increase of 12% [5]