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建信期货多晶硅日报-20250820
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-20 01:49
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of polysilicon continued to show high - level oscillations. The spot price provides strong support for the futures price, but the supply - demand balance in the industry requires more policy constraints and guidance. The overall supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. In the short term, the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and caution should be exercised regarding the policy exceeding expectations in the capital game [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The closing price of the PS2509 contract of polysilicon was 52,260 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.53%. The trading volume was 580,607 lots, and the open interest was 137,977 lots, with a net increase of 2,460 lots [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The average spot price (re - feedstock) was stable at 47,500 yuan/ton. The silicon industry association expects the production in September to reach 145,000 tons. The futures and spot prices are supported by policies at the bottom and restricted by supply - demand pressure at the top, and will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [4]. 3.3 Market News - On August 19th, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 5,930 lots, with a net increase of 110 lots compared to the previous trading day. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, and the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW. In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared to June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared to the same period last year [5].