建信期货生猪日报-20250820

Report Information - Report Date: August 20, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply of pigs in August is expected to increase significantly, with high enthusiasm among farmers for selling. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season, resulting in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and spot prices may continue to face pressure. In the futures market, the near - month 2509 contract fluctuates weakly following the spot market. In the medium - to - long - term for far - month contracts, although supply shows a slight increase, contracts like 2511 and 2601 are in the peak demand season, and with positive factors such as the anti - involution high - quality development initiative and strengthened environmental protection, the downside space is relatively limited [9]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Conditions - Futures: On the 19th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 13,930 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,810 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,900 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,425 lots to 181,426 lots. - Spot: On the 19th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.67 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pig pens is high, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is currently low, with most in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand is weak, and orders from slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughtering progress is fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 18, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 140,400 heads, 800 heads less than the previous day but 1,400 heads more than a week ago. - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase compared to the actual slaughter volume in July. The enthusiasm of farmers for selling is high, and the slaughter progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens remains high, and there are still secondary - fattened pigs to be released, so there is still pressure on slaughter volume, and the slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [9]. 2. Industry News - No specific news content provided in the text. 3. Data Overview - Profit: As of August 15, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 101 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 52 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 yuan/head. - Piglet price: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of August 15 was 484 yuan/head, 33 yuan/head lower than the previous week. - Slaughter volume: In the week of August 15, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.6335 million heads, an increase of 30,100 heads compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.88%; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 138,446 heads, an increase of 1,321 heads compared to the previous week, with an average daily increase of 0.96%. - Planned slaughter volume: The planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a 6.6% increase compared to July. - Average slaughter weight: As of the week of August 15, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.82 kg, an increase of 0.02 kg compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.02%, and an increase of 1.65 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.31% [14].