大越期货PVC期货早报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week. The output in July 2025 was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, while that of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. It is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production will increase significantly [7]. - The overall downstream demand is weak. The overall downstream operating rate is 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles is 36.91%, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes is 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.869 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films is 72.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin is 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.429 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive, but the current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - The cost side shows different trends. The profit of calcium carbide method is - 230.8115 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method is - 539.6422 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 10.30% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference is 2,661.85 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1.00% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in scheduled production [8]. - The overall situation is that the cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,949 - 5,053 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The supply pressure increased this week. In July 2025, the PVC output was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. It is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production will increase significantly [7]. - Demand: The overall downstream demand is weak. The overall downstream operating rate is 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different trends, but generally, the demand is not strong. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive, but the current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - Cost: The profit of calcium carbide method is - 230.8115 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method is - 539.6422 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 10.30% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference is 2,661.85 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1.00% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in scheduled production [8]. - Other Factors: The basis on August 19 was - 71 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%, the social inventory was 492,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased [10]. - Expectation: The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,949 - 5,053 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Includes yesterday's market data on various indicators such as PVC prices, spreads, inventory, and downstream operating rates. For example, the price of 01 contract decreased by 1.05% compared with the previous value, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.66%, and the factory inventory decreased by 3.10% [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base - price Trend: The base - price relationship between the spot and futures is presented, showing the change trend of the base price over time [17]. - Price and Volume Trends: The price and trading volume trends of PVC futures are shown, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages such as MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, and MA120. The change trends of the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats are also presented [20]. - Spread Analysis: The spread trends between different contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread, are analyzed [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit situation of the chlor - alkali industry. For example, the price trend of semi - coke in Shenmu, the cost - profit situation of calcium carbide in Shaanxi, the price and production of liquid chlorine, the price and production of raw salt, the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and production of 32% caustic soda in Shandong, and the cost - profit situation of the chlor - alkali industry in Shandong are all presented [26][28][30][32][35]. - Supply Trend: Analyzes the capacity utilization rates, profits, production, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production. For example, the capacity utilization rate of the calcium carbide method this week is 79.96%, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and the capacity utilization rate of the ethylene method is 81.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28% [37][39][41]. - Demand Trend: Analyzes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC. It also includes the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government special bond issuance, and infrastructure investment. For example, the daily sales volume of PVC traders in the East China region (excluding Shandong) is presented, and the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment and construction is analyzed [43][47][52][54]. - Inventory Situation: Analyzes the inventory situation of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse inventory, ethylene factory warehouse inventory, and social inventory. For example, the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory warehouse inventory decreased by 3.68% month - on - month, and the social inventory increased by 2.49% month - on - month [56]. - Ethylene Method - Related: Analyzes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method. For example, the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane and the export volume of PVC are presented, and the price spread between Tianjin and Taiwan in the ethylene method is analyzed [58]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export volume, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import volume [61].