大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate last week showed an increase, with production reaching 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week growth and higher than the historical average. Demand - side inventory of sample enterprises also increased, with the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises rising by 0.51% to 95,081 tons and that of ternary material sample enterprises increasing by 4.45% to 17,296 tons. [8] - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,375 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%, resulting in a profit of 2,126 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, leading to a loss of 3,890 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral. The basis on August 19th showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 1,840 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory situation was complex, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 2.56% to 49,693 tons, lower than the historical average, while the downstream and other inventories increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly by 0.11% to 142,256 tons, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The disk showed that MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, which is bullish. The net short position of the main contract decreased, which is bearish. [9] - In terms of expectations, in July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,640 - 89,440 yuan/ton. [9] - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,375 yuan/ton, a 0.04% daily increase, with a profit of 2,126 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a loss of 3,890 yuan/ton; the cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral; Basis: Bearish; Inventory: Neutral; Disk: Bullish; Main Position: Bearish [9]. - Expectations: In July 2025, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, predicted to be 84,200 physical tons next month (3.27% increase); import volume was 18,000 physical tons, predicted to be 18,500 physical tons next month (2.78% increase). Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,640 - 89,440 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Supply - side Data - The weekly operating rate was 63.92%, remaining unchanged. The daily production cost of spodumene was 82,375 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase. The monthly processing cost of spodumene was 19,810 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase. The daily production profit of spodumene was 2,126 yuan/ton, a 98.88% increase. The daily production cost of lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The monthly processing cost of lepidolite was 35,300 yuan/ton, a 1.48% decrease. The daily production profit of lepidolite was - 3,890 yuan/ton, a 21.70% decrease. The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% decrease. The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% decrease. The downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% increase. Other inventory was 44,280 tons, a 2.36% increase. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase. The monthly production of lithium concentrate was 44,810 tons, a 13.59% increase. The monthly production of lepidolite was 18,000 tons, a 7.60% decrease. The monthly production of salt - lake lithium was 12,340 tons, a 7.57% decrease. The monthly production of recycled lithium was 6,380 tons, a 9.81% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 427,626 tons, a 17.25% decrease. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a 16.31% decrease. The monthly net import volume was 17,267.97 tons, a 17.22% decrease. The supply - demand balance was 2.682 million tons, a 67.31% increase [16]. - Demand - side Data - The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate was 59%, a 5.36% increase. The monthly production was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase. The monthly operating rate of ternary precursor was 50.97%, a 2.93% increase. The monthly production was 68,640 tons, a 5.75% increase. The weekly inventory of ternary materials was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% increase. The monthly total battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% decrease. The loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 10,900 GWh, a 1.87% increase. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 44,900 GWh, a 5.27% decrease. The production of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, a 0.16% decrease. The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.329 million units, a 1.68% increase. The export volume of new energy vehicles was 205,000 units, a 3.30% decrease. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales was 48.67%, a 6.36% increase [16].