大越期货豆粕早报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Bean Meal - The short - term trend is likely to be in a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. The support comes from factors such as the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, and relatively low inventory in domestic oil mills. However, the high volume of imported soybeans arriving in August and the spot price discount limit the upside potential [8]. 2.2 Soybeans - The short - term trend is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Bean meal: In the short - term, it may enter a moderately strong oscillation pattern. The price of M2601 is expected to oscillate between 3100 and 3160. - Soybeans: In the short - term, it is affected by multiple factors and is in a neutral state. The price of A2511 is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [8][10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth and harvest, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China in August remains high, and the inventory of oil mill bean meal is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise in rapeseed meal prices, bean meal is in a short - term moderately strong oscillation [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mill bean meal, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. - Bearish factors: Continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Bean Meal - Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 161, indicating a discount to futures. - Oil mill bean meal inventory is 100.35 tons, a 3.66% decrease from last week and a 31.74% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. 3.4.2 Soybeans - Spot price is 4300, with a basis of 254, indicating a premium to futures. - Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.56 tons, an 8.38% increase from last week and a 0.59% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.5 Position Data - For both bean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players are increasing, and capital is flowing in [8][10].