大越期货菜粕早报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, domestic aquaculture demand, and inventory changes. It is expected to be in a short - term volatile and upward pattern, with RM2601 ranging from 2540 to 2600 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal prices first rose and then fell. The tight spot market and the pending final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports influenced the market. The short - term demand is in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations. The market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good expectation. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and an import deposit of 75.8% was imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, which still supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - The main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and demand balance sheets: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [23][24] - Price and inventory data: - The spot price of rapeseed meal is 2650, and the basis is 46, indicating a premium over futures. - The rapeseed meal inventory is 32,000 tons, up 18.52% week - on - week and 14.29% year - on - year. - The import volume of rapeseed in August was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has fallen to a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory has rebounded from a low level. - The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has decreased slightly [8][25][27]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [8].