大越期货沥青期货早报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, and the overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is flat, and the cost support from crude oil has weakened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3430 - 3476 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand along with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains at a high level, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In August 2025, the total planned domestic asphalt production is 2413,000 tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The sample enterprises' output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase from the previous week, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease from the previous week. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - Demand Side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase from the previous day. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase from the previous week. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has widened. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - Other Aspects: On August 19, the Shandong spot price was 3550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 97 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week. The in - plant inventory is 711,000 tons, a 4.71% increase from the previous week. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a 24.00% decrease from the previous week. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions have decreased [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, weekly inventories, weekly output, and weekly开工率 of asphalt [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main - Contract Spread: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: It presents the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 [39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread: It shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [43]. - Supply Side - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical trend of the weekly shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the historical trend of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - Output: It shows the historical trends of the weekly and monthly asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output: It presents the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Output: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: It presents the historical trend of the asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: It shows the historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It presents the historical trends of the total, social, and in - plant exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - Social and In - Plant Inventories: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio: It presents the historical trend of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73]. - Import and Export Situation - Export and Import Trends: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [76]. - Korean Asphalt Import Spread: It presents the historical trend of the Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2025 [79]. - Demand Side - Petroleum Coke Output: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82]. - Apparent Consumption: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [85]. - Downstream Demand - Infrastructure - Related: It shows the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][89]. - Mechanical Equipment - Related: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [92][94]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - By - Use Classification: It presents the historical trends of modified asphalt, construction asphalt, and other types of asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [101]. - Downstream Capacity Utilization: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [103][105]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and output [108].