工业硅期货早报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8430 - 8820. The main logic is that the supply - demand imbalance caused by capacity mismatch makes the downward trend difficult to change. There are also factors such as cost - upward support and manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans as well as slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [6][13][14]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling will increase in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery. The cost support has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50740 - 53780 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, a 3.57% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand side: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase compared to the previous week, with demand rising. The inventory is 242,000 tons, at a high level. The organic silicon inventory is 54,300 tons, at a low level, and the production profit is 392 yuan/ton, in a profitable state. The comprehensive operating rate is 75%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 49,400 tons, at a high level. The import loss is 547 yuan/ton. The A356 aluminum delivery to Wuxi freight and profit is 598.41 yuan/ton. The recycled aluminum operating rate is 53%, a 0.18% decrease compared to the previous week, at a low level [6]. - Cost side: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2939 yuan/ton. The cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Market indicators: The spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China is 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract is 575 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 545,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory is 171,150 tons, a 0.65% increase compared to the previous week. The main port inventory is 117,000 tons, a 0.85% decrease compared to the previous week. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closes below the MA20. The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease compared to the previous week. The production scheduling for August is predicted to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand side: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 12.1GW, a 0.66% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 198,000 tons, a 3.61% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, the silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month. In July, the battery cell production was 58.19GW, a 0.20% increase compared to the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 5.81GW, a 16.66% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, the production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for August is 59.15GW, a 1.64% increase compared to the previous month. In July, the component production was 47.1GW, a 1.72% increase compared to the previous month. The predicted component production for August is 46.82GW, a 0.59% decrease compared to the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease compared to the previous month. The European monthly inventory is 29.8GW, a 2.29% decrease compared to the previous month. Currently, the component production is in a profitable state [9]. - Cost side: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 35,850 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,150 yuan/ton [9]. - Market indicators: On August 19th, the N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 5260 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The weekly inventory is 242,000 tons, a 3.86% increase compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closes above the MA20. The main position is net long, and the long position decreases [9][11][10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices: Different contracts have different price changes. For example, the 01 - contract price increased by 35 yuan, a 0.39% increase; the 03 - contract price decreased by 70 yuan, a 0.77% decrease [17]. - Spot prices: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China are mostly stable. For example, the price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China is 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [17]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory is 545,000 tons, a 0.37% decrease compared to the previous week. The weekly sample enterprise inventory is 171,150 tons, a 0.65% increase compared to the previous week. The weekly main port inventory is 117,000 tons, a 0.85% decrease compared to the previous week [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing prices: Different contracts have different price changes. For example, the 06 - contract price decreased by 195 yuan, a 0.34% decrease; the 10 - contract price increased by 30 yuan, a 0.06% increase [19]. - Spot prices: The prices of various polysilicon products are mostly stable. For example, the daily price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers (130μm) is 1.2 yuan/piece, unchanged from the previous day [19]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory is 242,000 tons, a 3.86% increase compared to the previous week [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon also includes aspects such as price - basis and delivery product price difference trends, inventory, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance tables. Polysilicon also has downstream trends in silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, etc., as well as corresponding supply - demand balance tables [21][24][27][57][63][66]