大越期货甲醇早报-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the methanol market and predicts that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. Specifically, MA2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2370 - 2420 yuan/ton. On the mainland, due to the pessimistic sentiment of industry players caused by the macro - environment and the lack of further positive factors in demand, the willingness of long - term contract traders to sell has increased significantly. However, the relatively tight inventory of methanol enterprises in the mainland, especially in production areas, provides some support for prices. In the port area, the significant fluctuations in coking coal and coke have a negative feedback on the methanol futures and spot markets, and the positive factors supporting the market have reversed. Coupled with the expected continuous inventory build - up in ports and the lack of demand from major downstream industries, the port market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, waiting for positive guidance from policy and news. [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For methanol 2601, the fundamentals show a neutral situation on the mainland and in ports. The basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory situation is neutral, with an increase in port inventories. The disk shows a bearish signal as the 20 - day line is downward and the price is below the moving average. The main position shows a bullish signal as the main position is net long but the long positions are decreasing. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 fluctuating between 2370 - 2420 yuan/ton. [4] 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - Likely Bullish Factors: Some device shutdowns (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), a decrease in methanol production start - up in Iran, low port inventories, the production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen since May 16, the planned production of a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong in late August, and the external procurement of methanol by CTO plants in the northwest. [6] - Likely Bearish Factors: The resumption of previously shut - down devices (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month, the traditional off - season for formaldehyde, a significant decline in MTBE start - up, a certain profit margin for coal - to - methanol production with active sales, and the accumulation of inventory in some factories in production areas due to continuous poor sales. [7] 3. Fundamental Data - Price Data: There are price data for various types of methanol in the spot and futures markets, including the prices of ring - Bohai Sea thermal coal, CFR China main port, import costs, etc., as well as price changes and spreads. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 3.88% this week, while the futures price increased by 0.67%. [8][9][11] - Start - up Rate Data: The weighted average national start - up rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased. [8] - Inventory Data: As of August 14, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 891,100 tons, a cumulative increase of 87,800 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 72,900 tons to 571,200 tons. [4] - Profit Data: The profit of coal - to - methanol production decreased by 77 yuan/ton this week, while the profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol production increased by 323 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol production remained unchanged. [19] - Downstream Product Data: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged this week. The production profit of acetic acid increased, while the production profit of formaldehyde remained at a loss, and the production profit of dimethyl ether remained stable. [29][34][37] 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Ningxia Energy Chemical, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and maintenance losses. [57] - Overseas Methanol Device Maintenance: Some overseas methanol production devices are in different states, such as the QAFAC in Qatar having a maintenance period from the end of February to March 16, and the G3 in the United States having an unplanned shutdown until early May. [58] - Olefin Device Maintenance: Some domestic olefin production devices are in a state of maintenance or have maintenance plans, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy having a 45 - day maintenance starting from March 15, and China Coal Lin having a maintenance plan in the second quarter. [59]