原油成品油早报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point of the fundamentals has emerged, and the market is focusing on the cease - fire negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US tariff increase measures on India. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the risk rating of sanctions policy has decreased. The short - term absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to Russian crude oil supply. In the second half of the year, crude oil is expected to weaken under the pattern of supply - demand surplus [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Analysts believe that the expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace weakens the risk of sanctions, and the current oil price trend is consistent with the seasonal trend. The US effort to promote a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine reduces the possibility of additional sanctions on Russia or relevant secondary tariffs on its oil buyers. Seasonally, crude oil prices usually decline before mid - October [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary plans to raise tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil [3]. - A refinery in Russia was attacked by drones and suspended oil processing. The Volgograd refinery operated by Russia's Lukoil was attacked by drones on August 13 - 14 and has suspended oil processing [3]. - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July. Partly because Reliance Industries, the world's largest refinery operator, reduced its purchases in July compared with the previous high. Indian state - owned refineries will seek other oil sources from the Middle East or the US in August and September to replace Russian oil [3]. - The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 was - 241.7 million barrels, with an expected - 158.7 million barrels and a previous value of 151.9 million barrels [3]. Regional Fundamentals - US EIA reports show that in the week of August 8, US crude oil exports increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 3.577 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels to 13.327 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.036 million barrels to 427 million barrels, an increase of 0.72%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.159 million barrels per day, a 2.89% increase compared with the same period last year; the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 226,000 barrels to 403.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%; and the import of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves was 6.92 million barrels per day, an increase of 958,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week [4]. - From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries in China increased slightly. The production of gasoline and diesel in Chinese refineries increased, while the inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries increased month - on - month [5]. Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point of the fundamentals has emerged. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the risk rating of sanctions policy has decreased. It is necessary to pay attention to whether India resumes the purchase of Russian oil in the spot market next week. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are accumulating, and the US commercial crude oil inventory has increased by 3.03 million barrels. The crude oil export volumes of Brazil and Guyana have reached record highs. The peak season of gasoline and jet fuel demand has passed. This year's CDU autumn maintenance time is later, and the planned maintenance volume is lower than in previous years, which supports the demand for crude oil feedstock. The short - term absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to Russian crude oil supply. In the second half of the year, crude oil is expected to weaken under the pattern of supply - demand surplus [5].