LPG早报-20250820

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation trend. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price center to shift downward. However, the PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which has improved market sentiment. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, Shandong LPG, and MB propane spot showed an upward trend, while the prices of East China LPG and propane CFR South China fluctuated. The daily changes on August 19 were 40, -20, 40, 2, 0, 1, -2 respectively. The paper import profit increased by 26, and the main basis increased by 39. [1] Market Conditions - On Tuesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4390. FEI and CP declined, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP weakened slightly. The cost of production using CP was lower than that using FEI. The PG futures market fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was -449 (+19). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed. [1] - The spot prices moved downward due to increased supply and weak demand, but the PG futures rebounded because of the improvement in the international spot market and low valuation. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67), and the 9 - 10 spread was -471 (+9). The number of registered warrants increased by 2709 to 12888 lots. [1] International Market - The international market fluctuated, with freight rates remaining high and volatile. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. The discounts of FEI and CP widened significantly. The PG - CP spread reached 8.9 (+12), and the PG - FEI spread reached 20.7 (+12). The FEI - MOPJ changed slightly, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened slightly. [1] Fundamental Data - The unloading volume decreased, chemical demand increased slightly, and port inventories decreased by 2.06%. Refinery product volumes decreased by 1.68% due to increased self - use in some refineries and the maintenance of Xintai's gas fractionation unit. However, due to weak combustion demand, refinery inventories increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49pct), and combustion demand was still weak but approaching the end. [1]