《能源化工》日报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - The current core driver of the futures market is the strong expectation of the substantial relaxation of export policies. China may resume urea exports to India, opening an incremental market window. The policy requires concentrated exports by the end of September, overlapping with the domestic autumn storage period and creating demand resonance. The short - term market is likely to fluctuate strongly, and future attention should be paid to the impact of enterprise maintenance on daily production, changes in rigid and reserve demand, and export port collection [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Domestic PX supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand situation in August is expected to weaken marginally. However, due to the traditional peak demand season and new PTA device commissioning expectations, the medium - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. It is expected that PX prices will be supported at low levels, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to treat PX11 as a short - term range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels [4]. - PTA: In August, due to low processing margins, PTA device maintenance plans increased, and short - term basis was supported. However, with the commissioning of new devices, the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the upward space for the basis is limited. In the short term, there is still some support, and it is recommended to treat TA as a short - term range of 4600 - 4800 and conduct reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 at high levels [4]. - MEG: Domestic coal - based MEG supply has increased, and overseas supply is expected to change. In August, the supply - demand is near balance, and it is expected to fluctuate with commodities. It is recommended that EG01 fluctuate in the range of 4300 - 4500 in the short term [4]. - Short - fiber: Both supply and demand have increased slightly. With the approaching of the peak demand season, there is some support for prices, but the cost - side drive is limited. It is recommended that PF10 fluctuate in the range of 6300 - 6500 in the short term, and the processing margin on the futures market fluctuate in the range of 800 - 1100 [4]. - Bottle - chip: During the peak consumption season in August, with device production cuts, the processing margin has support at the bottom. The absolute price still follows the cost - side. It is recommended that PR is similar to PTA in terms of unilateral trading, and the main - contract processing margin on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton, and go long on the processing margin at low levels in the short term [4]. Methanol - The current methanol market has a relatively high port inventory year - on - year, mainly due to a large amount of imports in August, and imports in September are still expected to exceed 1.4 million tons. The demand side is differentiated, with the traditional sector remaining weak, while MTO profits have improved. Attention should be paid to the start - up progress of a port MTO device at the end of August to early September. The 09 contract has accumulated a large amount of inventory, while the 01 contract is supported by the seasonal peak season and Iranian gas - restriction expectations [7][8]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The overall sentiment in the industrial product futures market has weakened. The caustic soda market rebounded previously and then fell back. The spot market trading is okay, and the spot price is generally stable. The demand has been good recently, but there is an expectation of increased supply in the future, and the increase in the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas also has a negative impact. It is recommended to try short - selling [14]. - PVC: The supply side has new production capacity being put into operation, the domestic trade is weak, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The demand is difficult to improve, and the downstream industry is still in the off - season. It is recommended to be bearish [14]. Polyolefin - Static analysis shows that the supply and demand of PP/PE both increase, inventory is being depleted, and the basis is weak, with high warehouse receipts suppressing the market. Dynamically, PP has more unplanned maintenance and new device delays, and PE has increased maintenance from mid - August to early September, with supply decreasing and demand recovering. In terms of valuation, oil - end profits are good, MTO profits are restored, and PDH profits decline slightly. It is recommended that the unilateral market fluctuate in the short term and continue to hold the LP01 contract [19]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: In the third quarter, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve, and port inventory is expected to decline in August, providing some support for prices. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and its own driving force is limited. It is expected to be relatively strongly supported in the short term but will be under pressure in the medium term. BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [21][22]. - Styrene: The short - term supply of styrene remains high, but with profit compression, some devices may be shut down for maintenance. Downstream 3S loads have increased, and export expectations have increased due to overseas device maintenance. The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and port inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is expected that styrene prices will be supported at low levels, but the rebound is limited. It is recommended that EB09 fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 in the short term and be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [22]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices were weak, mainly due to the expected increase in Russian supply from the proposed Russia - Ukraine summit by Trump and market concerns about oversupply. However, the gasoline crack spread has rebounded, and refinery processing volume is at a seasonal high, providing some support for oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to be bearish, expand the spread between October - November/December contracts at low levels, and wait for opportunities to expand the spread in the options market after volatility increases [24][26]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Urea - Futures Prices: On August 19, compared with August 18, the prices of most urea futures contracts increased, with the increase ranging from 2.74% to 3.59%. The price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.21% [1]. - Futures Contract Spreads: The spreads of some urea futures contracts changed, such as the 01 - 05 contract spread increasing by 38.89% [1]. - Main Positions: The long - position of the top 20 increased by 12.03%, and the short - position of the top 20 increased by 16.18% [1]. - Upstream Raw Materials: The prices of most upstream raw materials remained stable, with only a slight increase in the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong [1]. - Spot Market Prices: The spot prices of urea in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - Regional Spreads: The regional spreads of urea remained stable [1]. - Basis: The basis of urea in various regions changed, with some showing a significant decline [1]. - Downstream Products: The prices of most downstream products remained stable, with only a 0.60% increase in the price of melamine in Shandong [1]. - Fertilizer Market: The prices of most fertilizers remained stable [1]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The daily and weekly production of domestic urea changed, with a slight decrease in daily production and an increase in weekly production. The inventory in factories and ports also changed, with an increase in factory inventory and a decrease in port inventory [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: The prices of most downstream polyester products decreased slightly, and the cash flows of some products changed [4]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: The price of CFR China PX increased by 0.2%, and some spreads also changed [4]. - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: The price of PTA East China spot increased by 0.4%, and the basis and processing margins changed [4]. - MEG - Related Prices and Spreads: The price of MEG East China spot decreased by 0.4%, and the basis and profits also changed [4]. - Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates: The operating rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. Methanol - Methanol Prices and Spreads: The prices of methanol futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and regional spreads changed [7]. - Methanol Inventory: The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and the social inventory all increased [7]. - Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rates of upstream domestic and overseas enterprises and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures: The prices of PVC and caustic soda spot and futures changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. - Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits: The overseas quotes of caustic soda remained stable, and the export profit decreased [14]. - PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits: The overseas quotes of PVC remained stable, and the export profit increased [14]. - Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rates & Industry Profits: The operating rates of the chlor - alkali industry and industry profits changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. - Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries increased [14]. - Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates: The operating rates of PVC downstream products industries changed slightly [14]. - Chlor - alkali Inventory: Social & Factory Inventories: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC increased [14]. Polyolefin - Polyolefin Prices and Spreads: The prices of polyolefin futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [19]. - PE and PP Inventory: The inventory of PE and PP enterprises and traders changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rates of PE and PP upstream and downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and naphtha changed, and the spreads also changed [21]. - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: The price of styrene East China spot decreased by 0.1%, and the basis and cash flows changed [21]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flows: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam changed [21]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports changed, with pure benzene inventory decreasing and styrene inventory increasing [21]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates: The operating rates of various segments in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [22]. Crude Oil - Crude Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads also changed [24]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased slightly, and the spreads changed [24]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [24].