大越期货原油早报-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil oscillated at a low level. The US is facilitating a meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, weakening geopolitical concerns. The API crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, which partially boosted oil prices. Overall, crude oil continued to oscillate weakly at a low level, awaiting more news from the Russia-Ukraine situation. Short-term prices are expected to range between 480-490, and long-term investors are advised to hold long positions [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: US President Trump said that Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky are arranging a meeting to end the Ukraine war. India's oil imports from Russia decreased in July. US Treasury Secretary criticized India's oil trading behavior. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - Basis: On August 19, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $68.06 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $67.79 per barrel. The basis was 23.85 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - Inventory: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.587 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending August 8 increased by 3.036 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275,000 barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 45,000 barrels for the week ending August 8. As of August 19, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.767 million barrels, suggesting a bullish trend [3]. - Disk: The 20-day moving average was downward, and the price was below the moving average, indicating a bearish signal [3]. - Main Position: As of August 12, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, suggesting a bearish trend [3]. - Expectation: Short-term prices are expected to range between 480-490, and long-term investors are advised to hold long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - Trilateral Meeting: The White House is planning a trilateral meeting between the US, Russian, and Ukrainian presidents in Budapest to end the long - standing conflict. The US Secret Service is preparing for the summit, although the final venue may change [5]. - API Inventory Data: For the week ending August 15, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.2 million barrels. The API Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 112,000 barrels. The API gasoline inventory decreased by 956,000 barrels, and the distillate oil inventory increased by 535,000 barrels [5]. - Option Betting: Traders are pouring into a specific option bet, expecting the Fed to take a dovish stance and cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points next month. However, higher - than - expected inflation data has led some traders to lower their interest - rate cut expectations [5]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period may be extended again [6]. - Bearish Factors: There is hope for a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium and long term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season ends [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement price of Brent crude oil decreased from $66.60 to $65.79, a decrease of 1.22%. The settlement price of WTI crude oil decreased from $62.70 to $61.77, a decrease of 1.48%. The settlement price of SC crude oil decreased slightly from 485.2 to 485.1, a decrease of 0.02%. The settlement price of Oman crude oil increased from $67.64 to $68.10, an increase of 0.68% [7]. - Spot Market: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $67.53 to $67.62, an increase of 0.13%. The price of WTI decreased from $63.42 to $62.35, a decrease of 1.69%. The price of Oman crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $67.95 to $68.06, an increase of 0.16%. The price of Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim decreased slightly from $64.00 to $63.99, a decrease of 0.02%. The price of Dubai crude oil in the Pacific Rim increased from $67.90 to $68.17, an increase of 0.40% [9]. - API Inventory Trend: From June 6 to August 15, the API inventory showed fluctuations, with a decrease of 2.417 million barrels for the week ending August 15 [10]. - EIA Inventory Trend: From June 6 to August 8, the EIA inventory also fluctuated, with an increase of 3.036 million barrels for the week ending August 8 [12]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: From June 10 to August 12, the net long position of the WTI crude oil fund showed a downward trend, with a decrease of 25,087 on August 12 compared to August 5 [15]. - Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position: From June 10 to August 12, the net long position of the Brent crude oil fund also fluctuated, with a decrease of 34,430 on August 12 compared to August 5 [17].