瑞银：中国”牛市“氛围下，谁正净买入？

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market, indicating a potential bullish sentiment among investors, particularly in high beta sectors such as communication, electronics, and machinery equipment [1]. Core Insights - The A-share market has seen an increase in daily trading volume, with an average of 1.95 trillion yuan in August, up from 1.63 trillion yuan in July, indicating improved investor sentiment [1]. - The financing balance in the A-share market has been rising, reflecting optimistic views from leveraged funds, although the current leverage is still below levels seen in mid-2015 [1][28]. - The number of new investors in the A-share market was approximately 1.11 million in July, a significant increase of 71% year-on-year, but still lower than the 3.8 million new investors in October 2024 [29]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - The report highlights that since August, the A-share market has experienced a steep upward trend, with major indices surpassing previous highs, attracting more external funds [1]. - The increase in daily trading volume and financing balance suggests a growing confidence among individual investors [1][28]. Section 2: Household Savings and Liquidity - Chinese households have accumulated over 7.2 trillion yuan in excess savings since 2020, indicating a potential for increased investment in the stock market [2]. - The rising M1 and M2 differential suggests enhanced overall liquidity in the market [31]. Section 3: Fundraising and Investment Trends - Public and private fund issuance has significantly increased compared to last year, with equity funds recording a 17% return, aligning with the overall market recovery [3]. - Public funds are expected to increase their holdings in A-shares by at least 10% annually over the next three years, necessitating an additional 5.9 trillion yuan in 2025 [37]. Section 4: Institutional Investment - Insurance funds are projected to net inflow 1 trillion yuan into equity assets in 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to the stock market [4]. - The report estimates that central financial institutions may have net purchased over 200 billion yuan in A-share ETFs in the second quarter of 2025 [47]. Section 5: Tactical Investment Strategies - The report recommends a tactical increase in exposure to liquidity-sensitive and high beta sectors, including electronics, semiconductors, and non-bank financials, due to improved market sentiment [7]. - Selective participation in industries such as photovoltaics, chemicals, and lithium is also advised in the context of the "anti-involution" trend [7].