广发期货《黑色》日报-20250820

Group 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The steel market is currently under pressure. The decline in rebar demand in August, combined with high steel mill production, has led to rising inventories. The price of hot-rolled coils has broken through the support level, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation from August to September. It is recommended to attempt short-selling hot-rolled coils for the October contract between 3380 - 3400 [1]. Summary by Directory - Steel Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices have generally declined. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar has widened to around 290 [1]. - Cost and Profit: Steel billet prices have decreased, while slab prices remain unchanged. The profits of various steel products have declined to varying degrees [1]. - Production: The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products have slightly increased, but the rebar output has decreased [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot-rolled coils has increased, with the rebar inventory showing a significant increase [1]. - Trading and Demand: The trading volume of building materials and the apparent demand for five major steel products and rebar have decreased, while the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has increased [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is facing downward pressure. With the increase in global shipments and the expected rise in future arrivals, combined with the decline in downstream apparent demand and the expected reduction in pig iron production in August due to steel mill restrictions, the inventory is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short-sell on rallies [3]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The prices of various iron ore varieties and price indices have generally declined, and the basis of some varieties has increased [3]. - Supply: The weekly arrivals at 45 ports and the global weekly shipments have increased, and the monthly national import volume has also increased [3]. - Demand: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills has slightly increased, but the monthly national pig iron and crude steel production has decreased [3]. - Inventory: The port inventory has slightly increased, the steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased, and the number of available days of inventory for 64 steel mills has increased [3]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View The coking coal market is currently in a state of adjustment. After the rapid price increase, the downstream procurement willingness has cooled, and the market supply and demand have eased. The coke market still has the expectation of a seventh round of price increases, but the previous bullish expectations may have been fully overdrawn. It is recommended to short-sell coking coal and coke on rallies and conduct corresponding arbitrage operations [5]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The prices of coking coal and coke have fluctuated. The price of coking coal in some regions has declined, and the price of coke has increased after multiple rounds of price increases [5]. - Supply: The production of coking coal mines has decreased month-on-month, and the production of coke has increased slightly [5]. - Demand: The production of blast furnace pig iron has remained high, but the downstream replenishment demand has slowed down [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of coking coal mines has slowed down, the port inventory has decreased, and the downstream replenishment demand has weakened. The overall inventory of coke is at a medium level [5].