广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250820

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. Core Views - Urea: The current core driver of the futures market is the strong expectation of the substantial relaxation of export policies, which has been realized. China may resume urea exports to India, opening up an incremental market window. The policy window requires concentrated exports by the end of September, which coincides with the domestic autumn storage period, creating a demand resonance. The overall market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - Polyester Industry Chain: For PX, domestic supply is expected to increase as some maintenance devices gradually restart, and the absolute price rebound space is limited. PTA's short - term basis is supported, but the upward space is limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply and demand are expected to be balanced with minor fluctuations in August. Short - fiber supply and demand both increase slightly, and prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range. Bottle - chip prices follow the cost end, and the processing fee space depends on demand [4]. - Methanol: The port inventory is at a relatively high level year - on - year due to high imports in August. The demand is differentiated, with the traditional sector remaining weak and MTO profits recovering. The 09 contract is facing significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal peak season and gas - limit expectations [11]. - Chlor - alkali Industry: For caustic soda, the market sentiment is weakening, and the supply is expected to increase. For PVC, the supply - demand pressure remains high due to new capacity release and weak demand [20]. - Polyolefin: In the static view, the supply and demand of PP/PE both increase, inventory is being destocked, and the basis is weak. Strategically, the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: For pure benzene, the supply is expected to improve in the third quarter, and short - term prices are supported, but it is under pressure in the medium - term. For styrene, the supply is high, but there are maintenance expectations as profits are compressed, and the downstream load is rising [32]. - Crude Oil: Overnight oil prices were weak, mainly driven by geopolitical expectations. In the short term, oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to expand the spread between October - November/December contracts [35]. Summaries by Catalog Urea - Futures Prices: On August 19, the 01 contract closed at 1817 yuan/ton, up 3.59% from the previous day; the 05 contract closed at 1839 yuan/ton; the 09 contract closed at 1783 yuan/ton. The main methanol contract closed at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [1]. - Futures Spreads: The spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 36 yuan/ton, up 38.89%; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 56 yuan/ton, down 5.08% [1]. - Positions: The long positions of the top 20 increased by 12.03%, and the short positions of the top 20 increased by 16.18% [1]. - Upstream Raw Materials: The prices of anthracite small pieces and动力煤坑口 remained unchanged, while the price of动力煤港口 decreased by 0.47% [1]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of small - particle urea in various regions remained unchanged [1]. - Downstream Products: The price of melamine in Shandong increased by 0.60%, while the prices of compound fertilizers remained stable [1]. - Supply - Demand: The daily domestic urea production was 19.12 million tons, down 0.78%; the weekly production was 132.85 million tons, up 1.51% [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Brent crude oil (October) was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; WTI crude oil (September) was at $62.35/barrel, down 1.7% [4]. - PX - Related: CFR China PX was at $835/ton, up 0.2%. The PX basis (11) decreased by 44.1% [4]. - PTA - Related: The PTA East China spot price was 4690 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The PTA basis (01) increased by 42.1% [4]. - MEG - Related: The MEG East China spot price was 4458 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The MEG basis (09) decreased by 30.6% [4]. - Downstream Products: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products showed different changes, and the cash - flows and processing fees also varied [4]. - Inventory and开工率: MEG port inventory was 54.1 million tons, and the polyester industry chain's various开工 rates showed different trends [4]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: On August 19, the MA2601 contract closed at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The太仓基差 was - 5 yuan/ton, down 171.43% [8]. - Inventory: The methanol enterprise inventory was 29.5573 million tons, up 0.64%; the port inventory was 102.2 million tons, up 10.41% [10]. - 开工率: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 72.63%, down 0.74%; the downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 76.92%, up 0.68% [11]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Prices: The price of Shandong 32% caustic soda remained unchanged, while the price of Shandong 50% caustic soda increased by 0.8%. The price of East China PVC decreased [14]. - 开工率: The caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.3%, down 2.0%; the PVC总开工率 was 78.8%, up 1.4% [17]. - Profits: The外采电石法PVC利润 was - 562 yuan/ton, down 3.7%; the西北一体化利润 was 278.8 yuan/ton, down 5.1% [17]. - Demand: The开工 rates of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased slightly, while PVC's downstream product开工 rates showed different trends [18][19]. - Inventory: The caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly [20]. Polyolefin - Prices: The L2601 contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the PP2601 contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [23]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory was 44.5 million tons, down 13.76%; PP贸易商库存 was 18.0 million tons, down 4.06% [23]. - 开工率: The PE装置开工率 was 77.8%, down 2.10%; the PP装置开工率 was 76.6%, down 1.1% [23]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Prices: Brent crude oil (October) was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; CFR China pure benzene was at $747/ton, unchanged [29]. - Benzene - Styrene Prices: The East China spot price of styrene was 7280 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [29]. - Inventory: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 14.40 million tons, down 1.4%; the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 16.15 million tons, up 8.5% [31]. - 开工率: The Asian pure benzene开工率 was 75.7%, down 0.4%; the styrene开工率 was 78.2%, up 0.6% [32]. Crude Oil - Prices: Brent crude oil was at $65.79/barrel, down 1.2%; WTI crude oil was at $62.60/barrel, up 0.4% [35]. - Spreads: Brent M1 - M3 was at $0.88, down 14%; WTI M1 - M3 was at $0.92, up 4.5% [35]. - Refined Oil: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil showed different changes, and the cracking spreads also varied [35].