瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. The supply pressure in Yunnan is still there due to weather interference, and the purchase price has been slightly adjusted downwards. In Hainan, the tapping operations have gradually resumed, but there is still a forecast of precipitation. The overall inventory in Qingdao shows a trend of de - stocking in general trade and inventory accumulation in bonded warehouses. The price of rubber fluctuates greatly, weakening the purchasing enthusiasm of tire enterprises. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tires has a small - scale fluctuation, with some room for increase but limited by the general order performance. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,450 - 12,900 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,525 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 955 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,150 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The trading volume and net positions of the main contracts of both have changed, and the exchange warehouse receipts have decreased [2]. Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the spot market have different changes. For example, the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of Thai - standard STR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars. The basis of Shanghai rubber and its non - standard products has decreased, while the basis of 20 - number rubber has increased [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference prices of Thai raw rubber in the upstream have different changes. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 has increased, while that of STR20 has decreased. The monthly import volume of technical - grade natural rubber has decreased, while that of mixed rubber has increased. The weekly opening rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires have changed, with the all - steel tire opening rate up 2.09 percentage points and the semi - steel tire opening rate down 2.28 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong have increased. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,275 million pieces, up 13 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,697 million pieces, up 174 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The historical 20 - day and 40 - day volatilities of the underlying have increased, while the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options have decreased [2]. Industry News - The rainfall in the Southeast Asian main producing areas of natural rubber has decreased compared with the previous period, and the impact on tapping has weakened. As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased. The inventory in the bonded area has increased, while that in general trade has decreased. The入库 rate and出库 rate of warehouses have different changes [2]. View Summary - The supply pressure in Yunnan still exists, and the purchase price has been slightly adjusted downwards. The tapping operations in Hainan have gradually resumed, but there is still a forecast of precipitation. The overall inventory in Qingdao shows a trend of de - stocking in general trade and inventory accumulation in bonded warehouses. The purchasing enthusiasm of tire enterprises has weakened, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tires has a small - scale fluctuation, with limited room for increase [2]. Tip to Follow - Pay attention to the opening rate data of Longzhong's tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].