Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract hit the daily limit down, with a decrease of 8% at the close. The trading volume decreased month - on - month, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened [2]. - Fundamentally, due to domestic mining incidents, the spot price of lithium carbonate raw materials has risen significantly, driving up the lithium ore quotation. Supply may continue to increase as smelters are more active in hedging. Demand has also improved as downstream buyers are more proactive in advance stocking with the approaching peak season. Overall, the lithium carbonate market may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 101.57%, a month - on - month increase of 7.764%. The call open interest in the options market has an advantage, and the sentiment in the options market has turned bearish, with the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. - The operation suggestion is to short lightly on rallies and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 80,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,560 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 is - 139,458 lots, an increase of 10,387 lots [2]. - The open interest of the main contract is 395,102 lots, a decrease of 18,995 lots [2]. - The spread between near - and far - month contracts is 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The warehouse receipts of GME are 23,615 lots, an increase of 60 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 83,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 4,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,560 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 980 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars [2]. - The average price of amblygonite is 8,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan [2]. - The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate is 17,697.62 tons, a decrease of 3,448.16 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate is 429.65 tons, an increase of 142.92 tons [2]. - The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, a decrease of 4 percentage points [2]. - The monthly production of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, an increase of 4,600 MWh [2]. - The price of lithium manganate is 34,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 55,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan [2]. - The price of lithium cobaltate is 235,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of ternary material (811 type): China is 148,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 124,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 130,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, an increase of 1 percentage point [2]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 51%, a decrease of 1 percentage point [2]. - The monthly production of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,243,000 vehicles, a decrease of 25,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly sales of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 1,262,000 vehicles, a decrease of 67,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CAAM) is 44.99%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, an increase of 2,286,000 vehicles [2]. - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, an increase of 20,000 vehicles [2]. - The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1,308,000 vehicles, an increase of 600,000 vehicles [2]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 73.17%, an increase of 3.84 percentage points [2]. - The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 55.24%, an increase of 4.50 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total call open interest is 145,340 contracts, a decrease of 2,807 contracts [2]. - The total put open interest is 147,624 contracts, an increase of 8,651 contracts [2]. - The put - call ratio of total open interest is 101.57%, an increase of 7.764 percentage points [2]. - The at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.43%, a decrease of 0.0279 percentage points [2]. Industry News - A national conference on promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones was held in Beijing, emphasizing the need to optimize policies steadily, implement policies to increase consumption, and cultivate new growth points in the consumer market [2]. - Xiaomi Group's total revenue in the second quarter reached 116 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30.5%. The revenue of the "Mobile × AIoT" segment was 94.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, and the revenue of the "Intelligent Electric Vehicles and AI and other innovative businesses" segment was 21.3 billion yuan, both hitting record highs [2]. - Yichun Yinli, a wholly - owned subsidiary of Jiangte Motor, which had suspended production for equipment maintenance, will resume production soon [2]. - Heilongjiang has adjusted its subsidy policy for replacing old consumer goods with new ones. Starting from August 23, subsidies for car replacement are divided into three levels. The subsidy standards for fuel vehicles are 5,000 yuan, 8,000 yuan, and 11,000 yuan respectively, and the subsidy for each level of new energy vehicles is 2,000 yuan more [2].
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-20 09:10