Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Corn: Domestically, new corn in the Northeast will be listed in September, leading to increased willingness of grain holders to sell and reduced trade - grain inventory. However, the market supply is relatively loose due to the release of rotation grain and continuous auctions of imported corn. Processing enterprises rely on contract grain or inventory, with insufficient procurement and limited demand support. The corn market remains in a weak trend and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2]. - Corn Starch: With the resumption of operations of previously - shut - down enterprises, the supply pressure has increased. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, resulting in a significant oversupply situation. The starch market also shows a weak trend and should be treated bearishly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract of corn futures is 2170 yuan/ton, with no change; the monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 75 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 937236 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 102120 lots, a decrease of 8778 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 110775 lots, a decrease of 2706 lots [2]. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2489 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 193999 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22794 lots, an increase of 39 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 lots, with no change [2]. - CS - C Spread: The spread of the main contract CS - C is 351 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer Market - CBOT Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 403 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3.5 cents/bushel; the total open interest is 1549876 contracts, a decrease of 67625 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133174 contracts, a decrease of 25206 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2384.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.66 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1927.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton, with no change [2]. - Corn Starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2710 yuan/ton, 2950 yuan/ton, and 2880 yuan/ton respectively, all with no change; the basis of the main contract is 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute: The average spot price of wheat is 2436.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.06 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Production and Sowing Area: The predicted yields of the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 398.93 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively. The sowing areas of the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively. The US yield prediction has decreased by 2.92 million tons, and the sowing area has decreased by 0.25 million hectares [2]. - Inventory: The inventories at southern ports, northern ports, and deep - processing enterprises are 75.1 million tons, 247 million tons, and 340.2 million tons respectively, all showing decreases; the import volume is 6 million tons, a decrease of 10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and Sales: The monthly production of feed is 2937.7 million tons, an increase of 175.6 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons, a decrease of 13.28 tons [2]. - Processing Profit: The processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 113 yuan/ton, - 56 yuan/ton, and - 46 yuan/ton respectively, all showing improvements [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Consumption and Inventory: The consumption of deep - processed corn is 114.06 million tons, a decrease of 2.4 million tons; the inventory days of sample feed corn are 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days [2]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates of alcohol and starch enterprises are 42% and 52.3% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.7 Option Market - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 5.91%, an increase of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 5.88%, a decrease of 0.02%; the implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options are 9.46% and 9.45% respectively, both showing decreases [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The ProFarmer organization conducted an annual inspection of crops in the Midwest. In Ohio, the corn yield potential is at the highest level in at least 22 years, but drought may limit the yield at the autumn harvest. In South Dakota, the corn yield per unit area is at the highest level since 2020 due to sufficient moisture. The increase in planting area and yield per unit area has led to significant increases in the US corn yield and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season, causing the international corn price to decline [2].
瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-20 09:18