瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1162.5, down 2.60%. The spot price of Tangshan Meng 5 coking coal was reported at 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. Dalian Commodity Exchange limited the daily opening volume of the coking coal futures JM2601 contract to no more than 1,000 lots since August 15, 2025, leading to a decline in market sentiment. Fundamentally, the mine - end inventory turned from decreasing to increasing this period, and the clean coal inventory transferred from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate has been decreasing for three consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On August 20, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1678.0, down 2.33%. On the spot side, the seventh round of price increase was initiated. Macroeconomically, China's rebar production in July was 1518.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the cumulative production from January to July was 11338.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory rebounded. The pig iron output this period was 240.66 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons. With high pig iron output, the coal mine inventory is no longer under pressure, and the inventory is transferred downstream. The total coking coal inventory generally shows an increase. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide this period was 20 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is between the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1162.50 yuan/ton, down 32.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1678.00 yuan/ton, down 30.50 yuan [2]. - The JM futures contract position was 898911.00 lots, down 32581.00 lots; the J futures contract position was 49523.00 lots, down 367.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 111119.00 lots, up 4950.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5276.00 lots, up 763.00 lots [2]. - The spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts was 118.00 yuan/ton, down 25.00 yuan; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts was 45.00 yuan/ton, down 28.50 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 820.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 954.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan first - grade metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 147.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1500.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1300.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the J main contract was 42.00 yuan/ton, up 30.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the JM main contract was 137.50 yuan/ton, up 32.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 25.70 million tons, down 0.70 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 294.80 million tons, down 2.20 million tons [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.36%, down 0.00%; the raw coal output was 38098.70 million tons, down 4008.70 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3561.00 million tons, up 257.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 187.90 million tons, down 0.40 million tons [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 447.78 million tons, down 15.27 million tons; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 269.71 million tons, down 3.84 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 976.88 million tons, down 11.04 million tons; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 62.51 million tons, down 7.22 million tons [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 805.80 million tons, down 2.86 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 609.80 million tons, down 9.48 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.97 days, down 0.02 days; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 10.83 days, down 0.08 days [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 962.30 million tons, up 53.11 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 89.00 million tons, up 38.00 million tons [2]. - The coking coal output was 4064.38 million tons, down 5.89 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.34%, up 0.31% [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was 20.00 yuan/ton, up 36.00 yuan/ton; the coke output was 4185.50 million tons, up 15.20 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.57%, down 0.20%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.24%, up 0.17% [2]. - The crude steel output was 7965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology deployed to further standardize the competition order of the photovoltaic industry, requiring strengthening industrial regulation and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity in a market - oriented and legalized manner; curbing low - price disorderly competition and improving the price monitoring and product pricing mechanism [2]. - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 135839 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%; the national general public budget expenditure was 160737 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2]. - A national teleconference on promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones was held in Beijing. The meeting emphasized the need to steadily optimize policies, implement policies to increase consumption, and accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in the consumer market [2]. - Nearly one - third of US companies plan to raise prices within six months, which reflects that US companies are more inclined to pass on higher input and import costs to consumers. Large - scale price increases may exacerbate inflation, affect US household budgets, and influence the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve [2].