瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall supply of Shanghai lead continues to be flat, demand gradually increases, and combined with the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is recommended to go long on lead prices on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,725 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote was 1,973.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars [3]. - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead was 96,382 lots, up 3,663 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 1,384 lots, down 433 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 60,903 tons, down 450 tons [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,844 tons, up 2,510 tons; the LME lead inventory was 282,950 tons, up 22,475 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,600 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,770 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 41.8 dollars/ton, up 2.2 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.25%, down 2.4 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,300 tons, up 1,500 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 70 dollars/thousand tons, down 10 dollars; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons [3]. - The import volume of lead ore was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3]. - The average market price of waste batteries was 10,108.93 yuan/ton, unchanged; the export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, down 425,000 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 2,041.35 points, up 21.34 points; the monthly output of automobiles was 2.51 million, down 298,600 [3]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1.647 million, up 73,000 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Bessent will start meeting with 11 candidates for the Fed Chairman around September 1st; India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [3]. - Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman suggested allowing Fed staff to hold a small amount of cryptocurrencies [3]. - US Commerce Secretary Luttner confirmed that the government is seeking to acquire a 10% stake in Intel; SoftBank Group invested $2 billion in Intel [3]. - The White House is considering hosting a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit in Hungary [3]. - The US and Europe will immediately start providing security guarantees for Ukraine; Trump has ruled out sending ground troops to Ukraine but said air support is an option [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The production of some primary lead smelters has been adjusted due to price fluctuations, but the output still fluctuates slightly; the supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, and the overall supply is tight [3]. - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - acid battery field. Although approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [3]. - Inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and although the demand has not effectively reduced inventory, it is expected to gradually strengthen and support lead prices [3].