瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For soda ash, short - term fundamentals have returned. It's recommended to buy the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the production cut intensity. The market supply is currently loose, and the destocking process will be repeated. The price drop today is mainly due to the decline of coking coal, and it's uncertain whether the anti - involution meeting will lead to price speculation [2]. - For glass, the supply is at a low level with no change in cold - repair of production lines. The demand from the real estate is weak, but downstream deep - processing orders have a slight increase. It's recommended to buy the main contract on dips when the price drops to around 1100 yuan. The market may trade the positive impact of potential interest rate cuts [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1309 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1162 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 147 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; soda ash main contract position: 1365953 lots, down 62895 lots; glass main contract position: 1198103 lots, up 1641 lots [2]. - Soda ash front 20 net position: 34639 lots, down 345354 lots; glass front 20 net position: 30267 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 11020 tons, down 100 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 2388 tons, down 50 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: 828 yuan, up 13 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 165 yuan, up 11 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 98 yuan, up 8 yuan; glass basis: - 82 yuan, up 30 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1325 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1265 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass large board: 1084 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large board: 1090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 87.32%, up 1.91%; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, up 2.34% [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production production lines: 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 189.73 million tons, up 0.35 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6342.6 million heavy boxes, up 157.9 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Real estate new construction area cumulative value: 35206 million square meters, up 4841.68 million square meters; real estate completion area cumulative value: 25034 million square meters, up 2467.39 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - One - year and five - year LPR remain unchanged; the new generation of military equipment will be unveiled; the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues [2]. 3.6 Macro Situation In July, the prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [2]. 3.7 View Summary - Soda ash: The supply is abundant in the short - term, and the production may decline in the future. The demand from glass is at a low level, and the photovoltaic glass drives a small increase in demand. The inventory is rising due to insufficient demand [2]. - Glass: The supply is at a low level, and the demand from the real estate is weak. The downstream deep - processing orders have a slight increase, and the market may start the restocking expectation [2].