国债期货日报-20250820

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main driving force, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, continuously suppressing bond market sentiment, especially reflected in the increased selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds, leading to a continuous widening of the spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds. The "strong stock, weak bond" linkage effect is enhanced, and in the short term, liquidity factors may surpass fundamentals and the money market to become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening term spread brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - Closing Prices and Volume: T, TF, TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.18%, 0.1%, 0.35% respectively, while TS remained unchanged. T, TF, TS, TL main contract trading volumes increased by 10413, 5816, 734, 2442 respectively [2] - Futures Spreads: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased, while others like T09 - TL09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 decreased [2] - Futures Positions: T, TF, TS, TL main contract positions decreased. T, TF, TS top 20 long positions decreased, while TL's increased. T, TF top 20 net short positions increased, TS decreased, and TL remained unchanged [2] 2. CTD and Active Bonds - CTD Net Prices: Most CTD net prices decreased, with only 220007.IB increasing slightly [2] - Active Bond Yields: 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y active bond yields decreased by 0.75bp, 0.75bp, 0.25bp, 0.40bp respectively, while 1y remained unchanged [2] 3. Short - term Interest Rates - Silver Pledge and Shibor: Silver pledge overnight decreased by 2.31bp, 7 - day increased by 6.33bp, 14 - day remained unchanged. Shibor overnight increased by 0.90bp, 7 - day increased by 1.70bp, 14 - day decreased by 0.30bp [2] 4. LPR and Open Market Operations - LPR: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] - Open Market Operations: The issuance scale was 616 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 497.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2] 5. Industry News - Budget Revenue: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Tax revenue decreased by 0.3%, non - tax revenue increased by 2%. Central revenue decreased by 2%, local revenue increased by 1.8%. Stamp duty increased by 20.7%, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 62.5% [2] - LPR Quote: The August LPR quote remained stable [2] - Previous Bond Market Situation: On Wednesday, Treasury bond yields weakened, and Treasury bond futures declined. DR007 increased slightly. In July, domestic economic data showed mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended, and the US PPI increase dampened the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [2] 6. Key Data to Focus On - August 20th, 17:00: Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value - August 21st, 02:00: Fed releases monetary policy meeting minutes [3]