Report Information - Report Title: Oil and Oilseed Industry Daily Report - Date: August 20, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a high - level volatile consolidation. Due to concerns about production growth and a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month, there is pressure for the futures to fall below 4,500 ringgit and further weaken, with an expected test of the 4,350 - 4,400 ringgit range for support. After a short - term stabilization, there is a chance to rebound to 4,500 ringgit. In the long term, affected by seasonal production growth and the expected significant inventory increase from August to September, the futures price may decline to 4,000 ringgit [3]. - Domestic Market: The Dalian palm oil futures are also in a high - level volatile consolidation. After breaking below the 9,500 yuan support, there is pressure for further weakening, with an expected test of the 9,200 yuan platform for support, and strong support at around 9,000 yuan. After the current adjustment, there is a possibility of the futures strengthening again. The long - term upward trend remains good, and it is currently considered a Wave 4 adjustment [3]. Soybean Oil - International crude oil decline due to expected easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and concerns about potential changes in the US biodiesel policy have dragged down the vegetable oil market. The expected high yield of US soybeans has also affected domestic oils. In the domestic market, the current downstream demand is not strong, but due to expected increased domestic demand and potential price increases of palm oil during the Indian Diwali festival, the Dalian soybean oil futures may rise after the adjustment, with support for the January contract at around 8,300 yuan [4]. Soybean Meal - The slowdown in the decline of South American soybean premiums and institutional oil - meal arbitrage adjustments support soybean meal. Institutions such as Qiankun and Morgan have increased their long positions by over 10,000 lots, making the short - term trend of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal firm, oscillating around 3,150 yuan. The spot prices of oil mills are mostly stable, with some slightly decreasing. Feed mills' physical inventories can generally last until the end of September, and the slow purchase progress for December - January shipments leads to a consistent bullish expectation for the long - term soybean meal price. The short - term spot price is expected to range from 3,000 to 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. Price Information Oil Price Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 308 | 8 | | P 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 256 | - 6 | | P 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | - 52 | - 2 | | Y 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 320 | - 62 | | Y 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 348 | 66 | | Y 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 28 | - 4 | | OI 1 - 5 | yuan/ton | 151 | 5 | | OI 5 - 9 | yuan/ton | - 199 | - 27 | | OI 9 - 1 | yuan/ton | 48 | 22 | | Y - P 01 | yuan/ton | - 1114 | - 46 | | Y - P 05 | yuan/ton | - 1126 | 24 | | Y - P 09 | yuan/ton | - 1034 | - 48 | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.6972 | - 0.07% | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8854 | 0.99% | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.7478 | - 0.35% | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.7826 | - 0.3% | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.8719 | 0.16% | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.696 | 0.84% | [5] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Unit | Price | Today's Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 9554 | - 0.89% | | Palm Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 9248 | - 0.9% | | Palm Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 9486 | - 1.06% | | BMD Palm Oil Main | ringgit/ton | 4496 | - 0.55% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | 9440 | - 220 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | yuan/ton | 20 | 94 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 546.91 | - 1.168 | | International Soybean - Palm Oil | US dollars/ton | - 49.6 | 5 | [8] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices | Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Change Rate (Spread) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Oil 01 | yuan/ton | 8414 | - 0.03% | | Soybean Oil 05 | yuan/ton | 8124 | 0.56% | | Soybean Oil 09 | yuan/ton | 8442 | 0.1% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | cents/pound | 51.84 | - 2.72% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | yuan/ton | 8430 | - 200 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | yuan/ton | 104 | - 10 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 55.602 | - 10.9904 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | yuan/ton | - 900 | - 150 | [13] Oilseed Futures Prices | Contract | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3160 | - 1 | - 0.03% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2860 | 16 | 0.56% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3116 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2627 | 23 | 0.88% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2517 | 12 | 0.48% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2667 | - 11 | - 0.41% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1033.25 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1865 | 0 | 0% | [18] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 300 | - 17 | RM01 - 05 | 110 | 11 | | M05 - 09 | - 256 | 13 | RM05 - 09 | - 150 | 23 | | M09 - 01 | - 44 | 4 | RM09 - 01 | 40 | - 34 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | - 30 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 140 | - 29 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2550 | - 7 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 54 | - 21 | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 470 | - 30 | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 533 | - 24 | [19][21]
油脂油料产业日报-20250820
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-08-20 10:14