碳酸锂点评：宏观走弱情绪调整，盘面全线大跌

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market sentiment weakened today, with futures hitting the daily limit during the session and the main contract LC2511 closing at the limit price of 80,980. The sharp decline in the market was mainly due to the overall weakening of the macro - environment and capital stampede, while the fundamentals showed no obvious turning signal. The short - term seasonal support maintains a tight balance in the fundamentals, while the medium - term industrial supply and demand remain relatively loose. The lithium carbonate price is still greatly affected by short - term news, with limited downward space, and the main contract may find support between 75,000 - 80,000. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1][3][6] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Today, the overall sentiment in the lithium carbonate market weakened. After a sharp low opening in the morning, the market continued to trade downward. Futures hit the daily limit across the board during the session. Some contracts opened during the afternoon session, but the overall market remained weak. The main contract LC2511 closed at the daily limit price of 80,980 [1] Factors Affecting the Market - Macro and Sentiment Factors: The sharp decline in the market was mainly due to the overall weakening of the macro - environment and capital stampede. After the main contract broke through 90,000 on Monday but failed to hold, some funds left the market in advance. Yesterday, the market sentiment adjusted, combined with the weakening macro - atmosphere and less - than - expected policy statements. The commodity night market was generally in the red, and negative news also triggered market discussions, intensifying capital stampede [3] - Supply - related News: Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Yinli will resume production, which is in line with the previous 26 - day maintenance plan and has little impact on the overall supply. The Trump administration said it will highly prioritize law enforcement in several new industrial sectors including lithium, mainly related to product exports from Xinjiang. However, lithium projects in Xinjiang have not been scaled up, and the proportion of lithium - battery exports to the US has declined, so the actual impact may be limited. The results of mining rights issues in other mining areas in Jiangxi (except Jiaxiaowo) before September 30 and the resumption of production in Qinghai Salt Lake are still unclear, which may provide trading opportunities [3] Fundamental Situation - Supply: The fundamentals have maintained a tight balance recently. The smelting end has short - term inventory support, and supply has not significantly declined. Last week's production data was mainly driven by an increase in subcontracting. However, there is an expectation of a short - term contraction in domestic supply, which is expected to be gradually reflected in this week's data. In July, the total import of spodumene was 750,651 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.35%, and the import volume increased due to price incentives. The total export of lithium carbonate from Argentina in July was 10,300 tons, of which 9,000 tons were exported to China, with a significant month - on - month increase in exports, which supplemented the reduction in domestic supply to some extent [4] - Demand: Demand is showing a stable and optimistic trend, gradually entering the peak season. Most orders for lithium iron phosphate have increased. The production of ternary materials has also increased due to the increase in customer - supplied demand from the cell end. The overall orders for electrolytes are good. However, the sustainability of the actual demand boost under the inventory pressure of the material industry chain still needs to be tracked. Last week, there was a slight de - stocking across the board. The inventory of upstream smelters continued to decrease, while downstream and other trading sectors had a certain amount of restocking. As of August 14, the total weekly inventory in the SMM sample was 142,256 tons, with smelter inventory at 49,693 tons, downstream inventory at 48,283 tons, and inventory in other sectors at 44,280 tons [5] Market Outlook - The short - term price of lithium carbonate is still greatly affected by news, with limited downward space. The main contract may find support between 75,000 - 80,000. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term as the fundamentals are in a tight balance in the short term due to seasonal support, while the medium - term industrial supply and demand remain relatively loose. After the third quarter, there are still project expectations for African mines, South American and domestic salt lakes to increase production [6]