LPG早报-20250821

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile consolidation. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, causing the spot price to decline. However, the PG futures market has rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which has improved market sentiment. The fundamentals show a decrease in port inventory and a slight increase in chemical demand, but the combustion demand remains weak, although it is gradually coming to an end [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs a) Daily Changes - On Wednesday, the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4390. FEI increased while CP decreased. PP increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP slightly strengthened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG futures market strengthened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -464 (-15). The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed [1]. - The supply increased and demand was weak, causing the spot price to decline. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4410. The PG futures market rebounded due to the improvement in the international spot market and the relatively low valuation of the futures, which improved market sentiment. The basis strengthened to 539 (+67). The 9 - 10 spread was -471 (+9). The number of registered warehouse receipts was 12,888 lots (+2,709) [1]. b) Weekly Outlook - The international market was volatile, and freight rates were generally volatile at a high level. The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal decreased. The discounts of FEI and CP strengthened significantly, and the spread between PG - CP reached 8.9 (+12); PG - FEI reached 20.7 (+12). The change in FEI - MOPJ was small, at 39.6 (-1.6), and the naphtha crack spread slightly strengthened [1]. - The spot profit of PDH - made PP weakened, and the paper profit fluctuated. The production margins of alkylated oil and MTBE decreased. Fundamentally, the port unloading volume decreased, chemical demand slightly increased, and port inventory decreased by 2.06%. The refinery product volume decreased by 1.68% mainly because some refineries increased self - use and Xintai's gas fractionation unit was under maintenance. However, due to weak combustion demand, refinery inventory increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate was 76.33% (+2.49 pct), and the combustion demand was still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].