PTA、MEG早报-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures opened lower and fluctuated yesterday. In the afternoon, boosted by macro - news, the market rose rapidly. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, and the spot basis strengthened. With low processing margins recently, some PTA plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load is rising. There is no pressure for inventory accumulation in August. However, the oil price is under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and the changes in upstream and downstream plants [6]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol rose significantly, and the market negotiation was active. Affected by the news of South Korea cutting naphtha cracking capacity and the commodity market, the market soared in the afternoon. It is expected that the port inventory will remain low from August to September, and the demand is gradually recovering. The short - term ethylene glycol market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with obvious support below. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and commodity trends [8]. - Factors: The supply - demand expectation of PTA is improved due to planned maintenance in August, and there are expectations of demand recovery as the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches. However, the profit margins of each link in the industrial chain are still under pressure, and the overall operation atmosphere is cautious. Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the cost side and the upper resistance level of the market rebound [9]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 No relevant information provided. 2.每日提示 - PTA: The opening price was lower, and it rose in the afternoon. The spot basis strengthened, and there was some replenishment by polyester factories. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 2. The net short position increased. The processing margin is low, some plants are under maintenance, and the polyester load is rising. The oil price pressure leads to a lack of cost support. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - MEG: The price rose significantly on Wednesday. The price was sorted out in the morning and soared in the afternoon. The port inventory is expected to remain low from August to September, and the demand is recovering. It is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [8]. 3.今日关注 No relevant information provided. 4.基本面数据 - PTA: The spot price is 4686, the 01 - contract basis is - 92, showing a premium on the futures. The PTA factory inventory is 3.66 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [7]. - MEG: The spot price is 4502, the 01 - contract basis is 25, showing a discount on the futures. The inventory in East China is 52.74 tons, an increase of 5.52 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [8]. 5.影响因素总结 - Bullish factors: Some PTA plants are planned to be under maintenance in August, improving the supply - demand expectation. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches, there are expectations of demand recovery [9]. - Bearish factors: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operation atmosphere is still cautious [9]. - Main logic and risk points: Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be noted during the market rebound [9]. 6. PTA供需平衡表 The table shows the PTA supply - demand balance from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA capacity, production, import, export, polyester production, demand, and inventory changes [10]. 7.乙二醇供需平衡表 The table shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance from January 2024 to December 2025, including EG production, import, consumption, port inventory, and supply - demand differences [11]. 8.价格相关 - Multiple charts show the price, production profit, capacity utilization, inventory, basis, and price differences of PTA, MEG, and related products from 2020 - 2025, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]. 9.库存分析 Multiple charts show the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various polyester products from 2021 - 2025, with data sources from Wind [39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49]. 10.聚酯上游开工 Charts show the opening rates of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 - 2025 [50][51][52][53]. 11.聚酯下游开工 Charts show the opening rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [54][55][56][57]. 12. PTA加工费 A chart shows the PTA processing fee from 2022 - 2025, with data from Wind [58][59][60]. 13. MEG利润 Charts show the production profits of different MEG production methods from 2022 - 2025, with data from Wind and Mysteel. The profit calculation is mainly for trend observation [61][62][63]. 14.聚酯纤维利润 Charts show the production profits of polyester short - fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 - 2025, with data from Wind [64][65][66][67][68][69].